no hassle listing blog

Buyer Market Blues

What is good for the duck hunter is not good for the duck.  Our housing market has been a buyer’s market for over 8 months.  Buyer markets are infrequent and typically do not last – many just weeks.  So far this one has proven to be slow moving but persistent.

For buyers (the duck hunters) more supply than demand has given them choices.  The only sticking point has been interest rates.  But those stubborn rates are causing downward pressure on pricing which is good for the duck hunters, bad for home sellers (the ducks).  As the Cromford report explains:

“There are three main measures that affect housing affordability: mortgage rates, home values, and income. In the past when home values rose too fast for incomes to catch up, it was mortgage rates that adjusted and brought payments back into range, but in this cycle rates have proven to be an unreliable, volatile ally. The housing industry has been waiting three years for mortgage rates to decline and save the day, and as more time goes by without relief, the more pressure there is on home prices and incomes to adjust in order to increase demand. It is finally happening.”

But sellers are reacting to this market too. 

“Meanwhile, more sellers have decided market conditions are too unfavorable for them and are taking a pause. While supply is still up 45% from last year, the last 7 weeks have seen a 3.4% decline. New listings added to the MLS every week has dropped 39% over the last 2 months, and are now at the second lowest level historically (2023 was the lowest year for new listings). Weekly listing cancellations are up 38% over last year, and expired listings in the last week of May were up 84%. In the past, cancelled and expired listings were re-listed right away and didn’t affect the total count, but this time sellers are taking a longer break and sometimes opting to rent their homes instead.”

A final note to buyers:  with supply trending downwards, if rates do drop we will likely see a surge in activity.  These windows of opportunity typically don’t last. Demand is elastic and can move swiftly.

A final note to sellers:  Price is a trailing indicator and the market moves before pricing does.  In a market that favors the duck hunters, correct pricing – with a focus on condition – and an agent who can market and negotiate are your best defense against the hunter.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(mostly Wendy)

Housing Crisis – Real or Imagined?

“The report of my death was an exaggeration” ~ Mark Twain

“While Greater Phoenix is slipping farther into a buyer’s market, it’s not extreme enough for a collapse of that magnitude. Buyer’s markets over the past 25 years, excluding the 2008 sub-prime mortgage collapse, saw prices drop between 5% and 11% year-over-year, and those price declines were enough to pull the market back into a seller’s market each time…. Either way, the current buyer’s market supports declining prices over the next 3 months; 20% is extreme, but 3% is more reasonable. If mortgage rates move closer to 6.5% or lower, all projections will change again.”

Once again – supply/demand controls pricing.  When supply exceeds demand, prices decline.  But, for a seismic drop in values – supply must move upwards dramatically or demand must collapse. Instead of dramatic movements, we are seeing gradual erosion of demand with a continuing increase of supply.  That results in downward pressure on pricing.  But it is wise to remember that unlike supply, demand is elastic and can bounce quickly – especially in response to lower mortgage rates.  The report of the housing market death appears to be an exaggeration.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(mostly Wendy)

It is not an easy time to comment with certainty on the direction of the housing market.  The housing market is a slow-moving ship.  Unlike the stock market, we don’t see daily volatility.  But let’s be clear –the point is we don’t see it – not that it doesn’t exist. That is because a sale of a property takes up to 60 days – so ‘reading the present market’ amounts to really reading the past.  

Volatility in the stock market and uncertain tariff policy are causing home buyers and sellers to question the effect on the housing market.  As the Cromford Report points out, volatility in the housing market has been the norm lately: “Fortunately, or unfortunately, volatility in the housing market is nothing new over the last 5 years. From extremely low mortgage rates, high demand, and astronomical appreciation from 2020-2021, to extremely high mortgage rates, falling demand, and depreciation in 2022, to moderately high mortgage rates, low-but-stable demand, and flat appreciation from 2023-2025. Real estate professionals have guided their clients through it all.”

Having sold real estate in the valley since 1978, it is true that we have guided our clients through every market extreme.  At the end of the day, we lean heavily on the underlying economic immutable law of supply and demand to provide guidance.  So, while the stock market can rise and fall quickly and dramatically, supply and demand take some time to impact the housing numbers.  Volatility in the stock market tends to impact the luxury segment, while interest rates impact the mid to low end market that rely on mortgages.  The Cromford Report addresses the luxury impact:

“It is becoming clear that the luxury market has lost some of its exuberance over the last 6 weeks, and it appears that week 8 may have been the high point for the year for this segment of the market. It is normal for the luxury market to be negatively influenced by falls in the stock markets and in cryptocurrency, as well as by increases in economic uncertainty. All of these have occurred in recent weeks. The S&P500 entered a downtrend in the latter half of February and is down almost 10% since then. Bitcoin peaked on January 20 and is down almost 23% since then. Stock market and cryptocurrency profits fueled a lot of the unusually high demand in the luxury home market and with those profits down it is unsurprising that demand for luxury homes has fallen.”

While the impact to luxury was predictable, something much less predictable also happened.  Typically, when the stock market plunges or the economy moves towards recession, money moves to secure havens such as bonds – causing mortgage rates to drop.  This did not happen in April – money did not seem to view bonds as safe – shockingly causing mortgage rates to rise.  Mortgage rates greatly impact the mid-market demand. Rates have finally seemed to settle in the last week in the 6.8% range as of this writing.

Despite all this chaos, demand has been subdued but relatively stable for the last few years – a good sign.  Conversely, supply has continued to rise in March and April which is very unusual and not a good sign.  Here is where the valley currently stands courtesy of the Cromford Report: “The overall Cromford Market Index for all areas & types stands at 78 (a balanced market is 100), firmly in buyer’s market territory and heading south at a slow but steady pace. Supply is still growing and demand is low but steady with a glacial trend upwards. We would need something new to happen to spark a significant improvement in demand. Prices are starting to decline and so are mortgage rates so affordability is on an uptrend. The movement is pretty slow for interest rates but quite sharp for prices. The cooling off at the top of the market has a lot to do with that. However, the top end has almost no effect on the monthly median sales price and that has declined from $465,000 to $445,000 over the past 5 weeks. We deduce that a clear downward trend in home prices has now been established. With the hottest months still in front of us, that is not likely to reverse anytime soon “

To sum the market up – at this point we expect gentle erosion in pricing to continue.  Sellers need to price right for an eroding market and address condition issues.  Buyers have more power and more choices.  Watching the stock market and the mortgage rates will tell you the likely outcome of each market segment. Change is the only constant and knowledge is power.  Lean on experienced agents to guide you. 

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(mostly Wendy)

Market Uncertainty

With the current head line grabbing volatility in the financial markets, home buyers and sellers are questioning what effect this is having on the housing market.  As the Cromford Report points out that volatility in the housing market has been the norm in last 5 years:  “Fortunately, or unfortunately, volatility in the housing market is nothing new over the last 5 years. From extremely low mortgage rates, high demand, and astronomical appreciation from 2020-2021, to extremely high mortgage rates, falling demand, and depreciation in 2022, to moderately high mortgage rates, low-but-stable demand, and flat appreciation from 2023-2025. Real estate professionals have guided their clients through it all.”

Having sold real estate in the valley since 1978, it is true that we have guided our clients through almost every market extreme.  At the end of the day, we lean heavily on the underlying economic immutable law of supply and demand to provide guidance.  So while the stock market can rise and fall quickly and dramatically (such as it has to the extreme of late) supply and demand take some time to impact the housing numbers.  Volatility in the stock market tends to impact the luxury segment, while interest rates impact the mid to low end market that rely on mortgages.  Typically, when the stock market plunges or the economy moves towards recession, money moves to secure havens such as bonds – causing mortgage rates to drop.  This did not happen last week – money did not seem to view bonds as safe – shockingly causing mortgage rates to rise. 

Despite all this chaos, demand has been subdued but relatively stable for the last few years – a good sign.  Conversely, supply has continued to rise in March and April which is very unusual and not a good sign.  Here is where the valley currently stands courtesy of the Cromford Report: “11 cities in Greater Phoenix are in very weak seller’s markets: Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Phoenix, Anthem, El Mirage, Glendale, Avondale, Apache Junction, Chandler, Gilbert· 4 cities are in balanced markets: Cave Creek, Tolleson, Tempe, Mesa· 14 cities are in buyer’s markets: Peoria, Goodyear, Surprise, Buckeye, Laveen, Sun City, Sun City West, Litchfield Park, Queen Creek, Sun Lakes, Maricopa, Gold Canyon, Arizona City, Casa Grande.

A weak seller’s market will not look too different from a balanced market, it only means that price appreciation will be slightly higher than the rate of inflation, which is just 2.4% per the most recent CPI measure. “

To sum the market up – at this point we expect gentle erosion in pricing in most of the marketplace.  Sellers need to price right for an eroding market and address condition issues.  Buyers have more power and more choices.  Change is the only constant and knowledge is power.  Lean on experienced agents to guide you. 

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(mostly Wendy)

It’s a Buyer’s Market – Are Prices Dropping?

Buyer’s markets are rare in the valley – we have been in a buyer’s market only 4 times in the last 25 years.  By definition, a buyer’s market happens when supply exceeds demand.  This causes prices to move downward which at some point stimulates demand.  Increased demand consumes excess supply and rebalances the market.  So if we are currently in a buyer’s market – why are prices not plummeting?

The Cromford Report explains:

“Phoenix has been in a buyer’s market for 3 out of the last 4 months, and it’s continuing into March as of this writing. Some buyers may be surprised to see price measures aren’t showing a decline yet, in fact the median is up 4.3% over last year. Price measures take at least 3-6 months to crack after a shift in the market, and that shift needs to be in effect for at least a season before it starts to hit the price line.

Why does it take so long? For a number of reasons, but one is the length of the sale. When selling a home, first the seller needs to list it on the open market and possibly wait 30 days before accepting a contract. Then after another 30-45 days in escrow, the price finally records. Then in order to establish a trend, two more months need to be established to show a measurable decline in price. Stocks, in contrast, can be sold and recorded at the push of a button, so volatility and price responses are instantaneous, and crashes are common.

This is only the 4th buyer’s market for Greater Phoenix over the past 25 years, and the one from 2006 -2008 was a doozy that ignites PTSD for those who suffered through it. Because the housing crash coincided with the Great Recession of 2008, there are some who believe home values are set to crash if another recession should occur in the near future. Historically, this theory is not supported. Typically home values go flat and boring during recessions, or barely rise. Ironically, buyer demand for homes increases during recessions because mortgage rates typically decline. Measures today suggest prices could decline in the coming months if supply continues to rise, but more like a coast or glide, not a crash.”

Will prices decline?  If so, the first sign arrives in decreased list prices, followed by lower pending home prices, and then in the closed prices.  The unknown variable in all of this is interest rates.   If mortgage rates land in the 6.1% range, demand likely will quickly respond.  But, if rates maintain their current range, pricing will respond by moving downwards to get rid of the excess supply.  Which scenario is most likely? Only time will tell.

Questions about your neighborhood or price range?  Contact us for answers. While we are not fortunetellers, we are students of the market.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy)

Our apologies to Charles Dickens, as we co-opt his famous title.  Rather we should say “tale of two markets” as greater Phoenix is currently operating as two very distinct marketplaces.  Depending on which you fall in, your experience will differ greatly from the other segment.  One segment, the luxury market, is flourishing.  Why?  We can attribute that to the stock market having had three years of impressive growth.  2024 was, by most any measure, a fantastic year for domestic stock markets. The S&P 500 hit 57 new all-time highs during the year and closed with a gain of 25% (including dividends).  When the stock market flourishes, so do luxury sales, as they typically aren’t dependent upon and therefore not sensitive to mortgage rate fluctuations. A word of caution to those in this market segment:  the luxury market is cyclical and good times do not last forever.  As to the general marketplace where the bulk of the housing sales occur, interest rates are having an outsized impact. The low and mid-range market is experiencing low demand and its result of drastically restricted number of sales.  As a point of comparison, in 2021 when mortgage rates were low, the greater Phoenix market has 108,998 sales.  Fast forward to now, and that number is only 71,858 ( a drop of 34%).  While demand remains stubbornly stalled in this market segment, supply continues to creep upwards.  Hence, buyers are experiencing newfound strength in negotiations over sellers.  The Cromford Report further explains the trend:

“Since the beginning of this year we have seen an increase of 2,324 in the active listing count (excluding those with a contract). This a 11.9% rise, which is much higher than the 8.1% increase we saw this time last year, and it is added to a base of 19,460 rather than 14,593. So it is safe to conclude that supply is both higher and growing more quickly than a year ago.

Listings under contract have also shown some growth – up 13.3% from 5,387 to 6,103. This time last year they grew 23.8% over the same period. We have gained only 716 listings under contract instead of 1,257 last year and the growth percentage is down 44%.

We are therefore seeing demand grow, as is normal for the season but at a significantly slower rate than in January 2024.

So if supply is growing faster than a year ago, but demand is growing more slowly, the comparison with 2024 looks discouraging for sellers. Many readings confirm this picture…

This situation will result in more difficulty for sellers in resisting negotiation demands from potential buyers. New competition from other sellers is appearing quickly and asking prices will need to be set to be competitive and attractive rather than complacent. A price which is initially set higher than the market can bear will result in a long marketing period and eventually deeper price cuts than if the price had been set properly in the first place. This is particularly true at the low and mid-range price points. ‘

Pricing – As we oft times mention, pricing is a trailing indicator.  The S&P / Case-Shiller® Home Price Index® just reported year over year appreciation of 2.1% for greater Phoenix.  The fact that pricing is not keeping up with inflation shows the market weakness.  It is important to remember, supply and demand ultimately control pricing. With demand weak, sellers are forced to respond with price reductions to compete.  As the Cromford Report confirms:  “Price changes are very much in vogue – they recently peaked at 3,820 per week, 52% higher than this time last year. This is not too surprising as we do have 40% more listings now. Price cuts outnumber price increases by about 14 to 1.”

New Builds – New builds – once the shining star of the marketplace – are losing some luster. The Cromford Report shows a drop in market share of new builds from December of 2023 vs. December 2024 of 28% down to 24%.  Builders have also begun to scale back on their production plans as evidenced by a drop in permits.  As the report shares, this is likely due to two reasons:

“This decline may be partly responding to a perceived lack of demand, but may also be influenced by home builders’ reaction to 2 key elements of government policy which could make life for the developers a little more tricky in 2025 and beyond.

• higher tariffs on materials imported from countries such as Canada, Mexico and China – either option will increase building costs – either paying tariffs on foreign sourced materials or buying American-made products will both be more expensive for builders than the current situation and will put pressure on their gross margins
• a clamp down on undocumented employees engaged in the construction trade could make some skills hard to find and lengthen build times

By far the largest area of employment for undocumented labor in Arizona is the construction trade. It is estimated that about 34,000 such undocumented immigrants are currently working in construction in Arizona, and roughly 80% of them were born in Mexico. These are unlikely to be working directly for the big homebuilders, but they make up a significant percentage of the skilled workers in their subcontractors. It is not yet clear whether or when these people might be deported, especially if they have no criminal record apart from staying and working in the USA without authorization. Less than 4% of undocumented immigrants are believed to have a criminal record. However, if the numbers of construction workers were to be significantly reduced through deportation, the rate of construction of new homes would likely fall. “

This is not a commentary on the current administration and its policies, but rather a housing discussion.  If the number of new builds continues to decline due to the limited labor pool or an increase in expense from inflation or tariffs on goods (lumber, aluminum, etc.), this could benefit the resale market. With reduced competition (i.e. less supply  being created) or increased affordability comparative to new builds, the resale market would benefit. Conversely, if large volumes of undocumented immigrants are deported – already weak demand for housing will drop further, resulting in price erosion.  These uncertain factors in the housing markets bear watching.

Whatever the housing market brings, we will report it here.  If you have questions you would like answered in a future article or in person, please contact us.  As always, we are here to serve and inform our wonderful clients and friends.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(mostly Wendy)

Housing Myths

For all the talk of national housing shortages, what the housing market has no shortage of is housing prognosticators.  While sensationalism grabs attention, it is often more fiction than fact.  Let’s bust a few myths with the help of Tina Tambour of the Cromford Report.  While she lists seven popular myths, we begin with myth #6 believing it the most important myth to shake:

“Myth #6 – Housing is in a bubble and home prices are on the precipice of a crash.

One could argue that Greater Phoenix already had a bubble and price crash in 2022 when prices rose to their peak by May and declined a whopping 12.3% from May to December that year, with short-term flip investors taking the brunt of the pain. Since then, prices bounced and stabilized with most price ranges seeing less than 2% appreciation year over year today. That is less than the current rate of inflation, and what is expected after nearly a year in a buyer-leaning market. While Greater Phoenix is officially in a buyer’s market, it’s very mild. Under these conditions, sale price measures are showing most non-luxury buyer negotiations at approximately 1.9% below the last list price. That’s a huge improvement over 2022 where sales prices were averaging 2.4% OVER list price. Prices are declining in some areas, but not all, and not by leaps and bounds. Current supply and demand indexes do not support massive declines in sales prices, but shaving 1-2% off lower list prices during negotiations is not out of the question. Sellers are not pushing the market with outrageous list prices. In fact, most are in line or even below last year in some price ranges.”

Note to buyers, now is the time to hire an experienced negotiator as your sales agent. “Shaving off lower list prices” requires some skill.  Sellers, get your house in the best condition you can and be ready to flex in negotiations.  Again, your best friend in this market is a skilled negotiator working for you.

Interested in all 7 myths?  Email or contact us and we will send them to you.  Otherwise, hang tight and we will explore them all in future articles.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy)

2025 Begins Quietly

Trying to read market signals with only two weeks under our belt is difficult at best.  It is simply too short a time to detect meaningful trends.  With that said, it is never a bad idea to look at where supply and demand stand currently and get a sense of where we begin this year.

When looking at demand, two very different markets are at play at the same time.  The luxury market, which is not interest rate sensitive but responsive to gains in the stock market and crypto market, has performed well.  Not so for the average buyer. Rising mortgage rates hitting the 7.25% range (this time last year they were in the 6.69% range), are limiting the pool of buyers.  As the Cromford Report shares:

“Where is demand? Closed listings stand around 5,000 per month and year to date closings are down 12% from this time last year. We have 5,750 listings under contract. We started the year with 5,496 under contract, so the rise since the beginning of the year is pretty feeble at only 4.6%. On Jan 13 last year we had seen a growth of 13.2% in listings under contract by now. You would be right to conclude that 2025 is starting distinctly slower than 2024 did.”

As far as supply goes, we ended the year with a 12% drop in listings through the holidays (Thanksgiving thru New Year’s) which is the expected seasonal pattern.  However, according to the Cromford Report, supply is now climbing by about 4% per week.  In fact new listings for January are the strongest Greater Phoenix has seen since 2020. That should put us back in the 22,000 range of active listings soon. The Cromford Reports states:

It is not clear where supply will head beyond this, but 22,000 plus listings is going to be more than we need with demand still subdued. New listings are arriving in 2025 at almost the same rate as 2020, which is significantly faster than the intervening 4 years….These conditions suggest home price projections should remain flat, either at or slightly lower than the rate of inflation annually.

At the moment, the market appears to be similar to the last quarter of 2024 – with the overall supply exceeding demand.  But, it is early.  Whatever 2025 brings, we will report it here as it unfolds. 

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(mostly Wendy)

As we begin the year, uncertainty seems to capture the tone of the real estate market.  Uncertainty doesn’t mean bad or good – it just means we simply need data and time to see and understand what trends are emerging.  Another factor is that many listings expire the end of December, thereby beginning January with an “improved market” for sellers.  That is a seasonal effect – and bears little significance as it happens every year.  As the Cromford Report confirms “Let us not get over-excited. With many sellers taking their homes off the market for the holidays, it would be unusual if the market had not improved for the remaining sellers during the 50th week of the year. Something around 5% improvement between November and December is just par for the course”.  Add to that a very long and heated election period– and despite our statement that elections themselves have little effect on the real estate market –psychologically people believe that post-election 2025 is bound for a shift.  And they are right in that mortgage rates react to the effects of inflation, economic growth, and fiscal policy (just not the election itself).  Candidly, our crystal ball is not working as to what will be the effects of this new administration.

Back to our market, the greater Phoenix real estate market spends far more time as a seller’s market than as a buyer’s market (which most consumers are unaware of).  Point in fact, in the last few weeks of November we entered a buyer’s market for only the 4^th time in the last 25 years.  However, as usual, God is in the details. 

The luxury market and the mainstream market are fueled by different economic engines and therefore do not always act in unison.  This is the case currently.  Luxury is experiencing rising pricing and activity courtesy of the robust stock and crypto markets.  Contrast that to the mid- market, and you see demand and pricing struggling due to  mortgage rates in the high 6%+ range.

When we look at supply and demand, we see the fundamentals behind the buyer’s market.  While demand hit a low in September and has improved if only a smidge, supply has risen during that same period.  To quote the Cromford Report “…Buyers have benefited from more choice and sellers are suffering increased competition.” Further the report states : “It continues to be a frigid market for most zip codes in Greater Phoenix with the lowest contract ratio* (listings under contract divided by active listings) we’ve seen since January 2015, 10 years ago.”

As to pricing, we are seeing the luxury market increasing while the mainstream market is vulnerable to erosion.  Given the low purchase activity – there is little to suggest upward pricing and in the outer fringes of the valley there is unquestionably downward pressure on price.  It is important to remember that pricing is a trailing indicator, not a leading one.  It can take months for pricing to respond to shifts in the market.  So really it is a question of how long this buyer’s market will last?  If interest rates decline to the 6% range – we will see demand respond and respond more rapidly than supply can.  At which point, buyer advantage will cease.  If they remain stubbornly above 6.5% then likely we will see further downward pressure on pricing.

There is a final point that we wish to make, while we can and do dissect the market and scan the horizon for trends and shifts, one thing remains unchanged.  Whatever the market – we sell homes.  What changes for us is the marketing strategy.  After over 45 years of selling homes in the valley in every type of market, we know that we can sell YOUR home.  Markets do not scare us.  Therefore, they should not scare you.  You can count on us.  Whatever 2025 brings, when we know – our clients will too. 

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy)

The 4^th Buyer’s Market in 25 Years Arrives in Time for the Holidays

Most consumers are unaware that the greater Phoenix real estate market spends far more time as a seller’s market than as a buyer’s market.  Point in fact, in the last 5 weeks we have entered a buyer’s market for only the 4^th time in the last 25 years.  But as usual, God is in the details. 

The luxury market and the mainstream market are fueled by different economic engines and therefore do not always act in unison.  This is the case currently.  Luxury is experiencing rising pricing and activity courtesy of the robust stock and crypto markets.  Contrast that to the mid- market, and you see demand and pricing struggling due to  mortgage rates in the high 6%+ range.

When we look at supply and demand, we see the fundamentals behind the buyer’s market.  While demand hit a low in September and has improved if only a smidge, supply has risen during that same period.  To quote the Cromford Report “…Buyers have benefited from more choice and sellers are suffering increased competition.” Further the report states : “It continues to be a frigid market for most zip codes in Greater Phoenix with the lowest contract ratio* (listings under contract divided by active listings) we’ve seen since January 2015, 10 years ago.”

As to pricing, we are seeing the luxury market increasing while the mainstream market is vulnerable to erosion.  Given the low purchase activity – there is little to suggest upward pricing and in the outer fringes of the valley there is unquestionably downward pressure on price.  It is important to remember that pricing is a trailing indicator, not a leading one.  It can take months for pricing to respond to shifts in the market.  So really it is a question of how long this buyer’s market will last?  If interest rates decline to the 6% range – we will see demand respond and respond more rapidly than supply can.  At which point, buyer advantage will cease.  If they remain stubbornly above 6.5% then likely we will see further downward pressure on pricing.

Whatever 2025 brings, when we know – our clients will know.  Wishing you a joyous holiday season.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy)