![\"\"](\"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/11\/travis-graphic-for-November-2019.png\")
December, active listings grow as demand cools.\u00a0 This year is no exception \u2013 although the impact is a gentle one at the moment.<\/p>\nAs we head towards the end of the year, the market seasonally follows a pattern that tends to favor buyers.\u00a0 Typically between September and December, active listings grow as demand cools.\u00a0 This year is no exception \u2013 although the impact is a gentle one at the moment.<\/p>\n
2019 was an interesting year.\u00a0 It began with the market heading towards balance \u2013 something we hadn\u2019t seen in a while.\u00a0 But by the end of February, it reversed course and began to strengthen on the seller\u2019s side.\u00a0 June, July, and October produced fewer new sellers coming to market.\u00a0 In fact October set records on the scarcity of new sellers.\u00a0 This dearth of new listings has kept the market favoring sellers, and the seasonal shift has only slightly mitigated that power.<\/p>\n
Price<\/strong><\/p>\n Typically the most interesting thing to real estate buyers and sellers alike, is price.\u00a0 Pricing is a trailing indicator as we have mentioned in the past \u2013 often responding 6 months or more to an imbalance of supply and demand.\u00a0 The first place pricing shows up is in list prices followed by pending sales. \u00a0\u00a0Price per sq. ft is a pretty reliable indicator. Notice in the chart below how the impact on pricing starts to show up mid \u2013 August, literally 6 months after the market shifted in favor of sellers.<\/p>\n As Michael Orr of the Cromford Report comments \u201cThis was looking weak during the second and third quarters but has perked up dramatically since August 7\u2026. $181.97 is the highest we have seen since the bubble year of 2005.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n He further comments: \u201cPrice momentum is rising, and in normal markets this tends to bring the market closer to balance. It does this by giving sellers better reasons to sell and giving buyers greater affordability problems.\u201d<\/em> When will the market shift in to balance?\u00a0 That is anyone\u2019s guess but 2020 could be the year.<\/p>\n Bubble\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n Like any financial market, real estate is subject to two key emotions \u2013 fear and greed.\u00a0 When pricing escalates the initial euphoria often gives way to unease.\u00a0 One can hardly blame residents who survived the valley\u2019s market debacle for assuming rising prices equates a bubble.\u00a0\u00a0 How does one accurately differentiate a bubble from a rising market? \u00a0Again, Michael Orr provides succinct insight:<\/p>\n \u201cHigher prices should encourage more sellers and discourages buyers which will eventually have a balancing effect on the market. If you ever see that higher prices encourage buyers to buy more, that’s when you have a bubble developing. This is what happened in 2004 and early 2005, but it is not happening now.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n We repeat, a bubble is not happening now.\u00a0 For those who like more in depth analysis of pricing, continue on with Tina Tamboer\u2019s comments:<\/p>\n \u201cThe news media is filled with short-term predictions regarding the economy and how it will, or will not, affect real estate prices. It\u2019s understandable for buyers to want their home to appreciate in value after they purchase, who doesn\u2019t? However there is far too much attention paid to short-term influences and fluctuations these days and not enough attention paid to the long view. Real estate is a long-term investment for many people. Despite the euphoria of 2005-2007 and the nightmare of 2008-2011, on average homes are selling 81.6% higher today than they were in the year 2000. That\u2019s an average appreciation rate of 4.3% per year over the course of 19 years. Smaller homes appreciated the most over time while larger homes appreciated the least. Homes under 1,000 sf have appreciated 122% since 2000, an average of 6.4% per year. Those between 1,000-2,000 sf appreciated 106%, an average of 5.6% per year. 2,000-3,000 sf appreciated 68% at 3.6% per year. 3,000-4,000 sf appreciated 49% at 2.6% per year and homes over 4,000 sf appreciated 11% at 0.6% per year.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n In short, we are in a normal seller\u2019s market.\u00a0 We expect to see prices rising throughout at least the first quarter of 2020 \u2013 if not longer.\u00a0 We will follow the numbers and keep you posted as they unveil.<\/p>\n We thank you for allowing us to assist you with your real estate needs in 2019.\u00a0 We consider it our duty to advise and inform our clients \u2013 whether that means buying, selling, or staying put.\u00a0 We wish you and those you love a very happy Holiday season.\u00a0 Here\u2019s to a terrific 2020!<\/p>\n Russell & Wendy Shaw<\/p>\n (Mostly Wendy)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" As we head towards the end of the year, the market seasonally follows a pattern that tends to favor buyers.\u00a0 Typically between September and December, active listings grow as demand cools.\u00a0 This year is no exception \u2013 although the impact is a gentle one at the moment. 2019 was an interesting year.\u00a0 It began with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1034","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-stats"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1034","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1034"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1034\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1036,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1034\/revisions\/1036"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1034"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1034"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1034"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}