{"id":151,"date":"2011-03-02T04:09:56","date_gmt":"2011-03-01T23:09:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.allphoenixareahomes.com\/?p=151"},"modified":"2011-03-02T04:09:56","modified_gmt":"2011-03-01T23:09:56","slug":"let%e2%80%99s-actually-look-at-our-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/?p=151","title":{"rendered":"Let\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Actually LOOK at Our Market"},"content":{"rendered":"

Any statistic is only valuable if it has been properly evaluated.\u00c2\u00a0 A tremendous amount of \u00e2\u20ac\u0153information\u00e2\u20ac\u009d gets printed and repeated.\u00c2\u00a0 Much of it is false or just plain silly.\u00c2\u00a0 Various economists make predictions about \u00e2\u20ac\u0153the recovery\u00e2\u20ac\u009d of the real estate market.\u00c2\u00a0 What is the definition of \u00e2\u20ac\u0153the recovery\u00e2\u20ac\u009d?\u00c2\u00a0 What exactly would one see if it \u00e2\u20ac\u0153had recovered\u00e2\u20ac\u009d?<\/p>\n\n\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/col>\n<\/colgroup>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
RANK<\/td>\nYEAR<\/td>\nMLS UNITS SOLD<\/td>\nEQUITY SELLER<\/td>\nREO\u00c2\u00a0<\/td>\nCASH<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00c2\u00a0<\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/td>\n\u00c2\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
# 1<\/td>\n2005<\/td>\n104,133<\/td>\n99%<\/td>\n0.42%<\/td>\n12%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
# 2<\/td>\n2004<\/td>\n98,294<\/td>\n98.4%<\/td>\n1.66%<\/td>\n13.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
# 3<\/td>\n2009<\/td>\n91,757<\/td>\n30%<\/td>\n56.00%<\/td>\n37%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
# 4<\/td>\n2010<\/td>\n90,408<\/td>\n37%<\/td>\n41.30%<\/td>\n42%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
# 5<\/td>\n2003<\/td>\n79,512<\/td>\n98%<\/td>\n1.99%<\/td>\n13.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
# 6<\/td>\n2006<\/td>\n74,105<\/td>\n99%<\/td>\n0.18%<\/td>\n9.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
# 7<\/td>\n2002<\/td>\n68,411<\/td>\n98%<\/td>\n1.65%<\/td>\n14%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
# 8<\/td>\n2001<\/td>\n62,523<\/td>\n98.7%<\/td>\n1.30%<\/td>\n16.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
# 9<\/td>\n2008<\/td>\n59,220<\/td>\n64%<\/td>\n34.50%<\/td>\n21%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
# 10<\/td>\n2007<\/td>\n54,231<\/td>\n96.7%<\/td>\n3.30%<\/td>\n11.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

On the chart you see here note that the highest sales year in history was 2005.\u00c2\u00a0 The second best year ever was 2004.\u00c2\u00a0 Take just a moment to observe that last year, 2010 was the fourth best year ever<\/em> for number of homes sold.\u00c2\u00a0 Also, notice the relative number of sales starting with the record breaking number of 79,512 homes sold in 2003.\u00c2\u00a0 Look at how last year (90,408 closed sales in the MLS) compares to the other top years.<\/p>\n

So, what is different or \u00e2\u20ac\u0153bad\u00e2\u20ac\u009d about our current market?\u00c2\u00a0 Well I suppose it would depend on who you ask.\u00c2\u00a0 If you ask the hoards of investors currently paying cash what is \u00e2\u20ac\u0153bad\u00e2\u20ac\u009d you would get a very different answer than if you asked a home seller (a whopping 42% of all sales in 2010 were cash buyers, mostly buying bank foreclosures).\u00c2\u00a0 What is good or bad is \u00e2\u20ac\u0153price\u00e2\u20ac\u009d.\u00c2\u00a0 What you see on the chart is that the REO (Real Estate Owned – commonly called foreclosures) category just a few short years ago was almost non-existent and last year the bank owned houses composed 42% of all the sales (that number for 2009 was even higher, 56% for the year).\u00c2\u00a0 When the percentage of cash sales rises way above 12 \u00e2\u20ac\u201c 14% there is a reason:\u00c2\u00a0 heavy investor buying.\u00c2\u00a0 Currently investors are a huge component of our market due to the current low prices.<\/p>\n

Notice that we now have a category called \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Equity Seller\u00e2\u20ac\u009d.\u00c2\u00a0 Just a few short years ago, these people were just called \u00e2\u20ac\u0153sellers\u00e2\u20ac\u009d.\u00c2\u00a0 The category \u00e2\u20ac\u0153short sales\u00e2\u20ac\u009d so recently entered our MLS data that we have eliminated it as a category \u00e2\u20ac\u201c although it would tend to mirror the REO pattern.<\/p>\n

Here are some interesting points on the market from the Cromford Report: \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Segmenting by price range we still see the greatest weakness below $100,000 where supply is very high and additional REO supply may be looming as trustees process the backlog from Bank of America\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s hiatus last quarter.\u00c2\u00a0 Even here the situation is much improved because buying activity has accelerated as the pricing has fallen.\u00c2\u00a0 The strongest price range is currently $400,000 to $800,000 where sales prices have stabilized and even moved very slightly higher over the last four months when measured by price per sq.ft.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/em><\/p>\n

After unusually low foreclosure numbers in November and December (due to seasonal moratoriums and Bank of America\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s temporary halting of foreclosures) the numbers reverted back to normal levels with 6,783 new notices and 4,585 trustee deeds recorded.\u00c2\u00a0 The net effect was to reduce the number of pending foreclosures to fewer than 40,000 for the first time since March 2009.<\/p>\n

Add in to the mix of all this, the government\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s proposal to eliminate Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – or at a minimum move it back to the private sector.\u00c2\u00a0 This is a bit like locking the barn door after the horse has bolted \u00e2\u20ac\u201c but change is warranted and inevitable.\u00c2\u00a0 Whatever the change, it will no doubt result in a rise in interest rates as less money is available for lending.\u00c2\u00a0 Rising rates impact affordability and could create downward pressure on pricing.\u00c2\u00a0 Our hopes are that the change will be implemented gradually to minimize the damage and allow the private sector to fill the gap left by these lending giants.<\/p>\n

As always this market continues to provide plenty of topics for the water cooler.\u00c2\u00a0 We will continue to share the trends as they appear.\u00c2\u00a0 Please call us with your thoughts or concerns.\u00c2\u00a0 We are here to help.<\/p>\n

Russell & Wendy Shaw<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Any statistic is only valuable if it has been properly evaluated.\u00c2\u00a0 A tremendous amount of \u00e2\u20ac\u0153information\u00e2\u20ac\u009d gets printed and repeated.\u00c2\u00a0 Much of it is false or just plain silly.\u00c2\u00a0 Various economists make predictions about \u00e2\u20ac\u0153the recovery\u00e2\u20ac\u009d of the real estate market.\u00c2\u00a0 What is the definition of \u00e2\u20ac\u0153the recovery\u00e2\u20ac\u009d?\u00c2\u00a0 What exactly would one see if it […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-151","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-home-values"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=151"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":152,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/151\/revisions\/152"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=151"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=151"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=151"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}