{"id":310,"date":"2013-03-27T03:42:51","date_gmt":"2013-03-26T22:42:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.allphoenixareahomes.com\/?p=310"},"modified":"2013-10-26T04:00:26","modified_gmt":"2013-10-25T23:00:26","slug":"aprils-tug-of-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/?p=310","title":{"rendered":"April\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Tug of War"},"content":{"rendered":"

With 2013 well underway, we continue to observe the clear signs of recovery.\u00c2\u00a0 Like most transitions, this one is not without its challenges, but the upward trajectory seems clear to anyone observing facts rather than emotions.\u00c2\u00a0 However, there is a lag from the time facts become available until public sentiment broadly accepts those facts.\u00c2\u00a0 Remember that the next time you see an article explaining how the valley\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s market is worsening or that loan defaults are on the rise.\u00c2\u00a0 It simply isn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t true.\u00c2\u00a0 Since 2004, an ongoing challenge has been to separate market fact from fiction.\u00c2\u00a0 With that in mind, we return to the subject of market statistics.\u00c2\u00a0 As always, our numbers come from the incomparable Michael Orr of the Cromford Report.<\/p>\n

Supply of homes for sale<\/strong>\u00c2\u00a0 The supply of new resale listings coming on the market remains constrained. The total current supply of homes for sale is 8.7% lower than last year.\u00c2\u00a0 The primary cause for the reduction in inventory is due to the rapidly disappearing distress product. The traditional seller is simply not coming to the market in sufficient volume to replace this loss. \u00c2\u00a0The yearly change in mix of the type of homes for sale is dramatic. Lender owned listings (REOs) are down 15.3%, but short sales show the most dramatic shift \u00e2\u20ac\u201c down 46.4%.\u00c2\u00a0 While the traditional seller is up from a year ago with an increase of 19.1%, you can quickly see it is not enough to fill the large loss of the distressed properties.\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Certain areas and prices are showing a scarcity of supply more than others.\u00c2\u00a0 In particular the areas that have lost inventory of homes for sale from last year and are showing the tightest supply – \u00c2\u00a0are Tempe, Glendale, Chandler, Peoria, Avondale, and Gilbert.\u00c2\u00a0 Conversely, supply is still adequate in luxury home areas such as Carefree, Rio Verde, Paradise Valley and Gold Canyon.<\/p>\n

As to price ranges that are constricting, supply is very tight below $225,000.\u00c2\u00a0 Between $225,000 and $500,000 supply is low but stable.\u00c2\u00a0 Above $500,000, supply is recovering and in the top ranges over $2,000,000 supply is plentiful and now increasing.<\/p>\n

Sales\u00c2\u00a0 <\/strong>Sales remain weaker than last year, largely due to the small supply of bank owned and short sale homes available.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 The number of short sales and lender owned properties were both down by 47% from last year.\u00c2\u00a0 Investor purchases are at the lowest number since September 2011 and now comprise only 25.3% of the sales in Maricopa County (compare that to at one point hovering in the range of 50%).<\/p>\n

Before one grabs the Kleenex box though, it would be wise to remember that while 2013 sales are down from 2012 and 2011, they are higher than any year from 2006-2010.\u00c2\u00a0 So it is far from a dire situation as they remain \u00e2\u20ac\u0153above normal\u00e2\u20ac\u009d.\u00c2\u00a0 With pricing still below replacement cost and interest rates hovering at record low levels \u00e2\u20ac\u201c this market has a lot to offer buyers.<\/p>\n

Prices\u00c2\u00a0 <\/strong>While price per square foot is typically our best indicator of short-term pricing trends, it is quite interesting to note long-term trends through median pricing (the point where half the sales fall above the price, half below).\u00c2\u00a0 Currently our median pricing is up from a year ago by 31%.\u00c2\u00a0The median price is now $160,000 vs. $122,000 last year.\u00c2\u00a0 We expect to see strong upward pressure on prices through the summer.<\/p>\n

New Homes\u00c2\u00a0 <\/strong>For buyers frustrated with finding a home, new homes offer only a small respite.\u00c2\u00a0 While production has increased, they are not even at a third of the production levels they were at 15 years ago!\u00c2\u00a0 Increasing labor costs and the time needed to put that labor team in place, combined with the fear of repeating the drubbing they took back in 2006, production remains too low to fill the demand for needed homes.<\/p>\n

As we have mentioned so many times, supply and demand ultimately provide a tug of war on prices.\u00c2\u00a0 While supply continues to remain lower than demand, we expect prices to rise accordingly.\u00c2\u00a0 Rising prices bring out the sidelined sellers who have been waiting to sell.\u00c2\u00a0 In short, this too shall pass.\u00c2\u00a0 In the meantime, we will do our best to share with you the results of this battle.\u00c2\u00a0 As always, we appreciate the loyalty of our clients.\u00c2\u00a0 We are here to serve you.<\/p>\n

Russell & Wendy Shaw<\/p>\n

(mostly Wendy)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

With 2013 well underway, we continue to observe the clear signs of recovery.\u00c2\u00a0 Like most transitions, this one is not without its challenges, but the upward trajectory seems clear to anyone observing facts rather than emotions.\u00c2\u00a0 However, there is a lag from the time facts become available until public sentiment broadly accepts those facts.\u00c2\u00a0 Remember […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-310","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-home-values"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/310","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=310"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/310\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":373,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/310\/revisions\/373"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=310"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=310"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=310"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}