{"id":511,"date":"2014-09-03T04:29:00","date_gmt":"2014-09-02T23:29:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/?p=511"},"modified":"2014-09-03T04:30:55","modified_gmt":"2014-09-02T23:30:55","slug":"mixed-messages","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/?p=511","title":{"rendered":"Mixed Messages"},"content":{"rendered":"

It is understandable that both Buyers and Sellers (and if we are completely honest, most real estate agents)\u00c2\u00a0 are scratching their heads as to \"cromford<\/a>the state of this market.\u00c2\u00a0 We have listened to the sides argue we are in a \u00e2\u20ac\u0153buyer\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s market\u00e2\u20ac\u009d, no wait we are in a \u00e2\u20ac\u0153seller\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s market\u00e2\u20ac\u009d!\u00c2\u00a0 The underlying fact is that the real estate market is a moving target.\u00c2\u00a0 This means that the market conditions are in flux \u00e2\u20ac\u201c there is what the market condition is now and then there is the lag until people know where the market is.\u00c2\u00a0 If you haven\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t fallen asleep at that concept, let us share some interesting facts:<\/p>\n

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  1. Active listings are down 14% since March of this year. If you\u00e2\u20ac\u2122re a seller \u00e2\u20ac\u201c low supply – that sounds like a seller\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s market doesn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t it? \u00c2\u00a0 \u00c2\u00a0 \u00c2\u00a0 Of course, if we compare active listings now to this time last year, we are up 28% in supply. That sounds like a buyer\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s market doesn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t it? \u00c2\u00a0 \u00c2\u00a0 \u00c2\u00a0 See how confusing this gets?<\/li>\n
  2. Price appreciation for the last year came in at a paltry 1.9% (for non-distress sales). By the way, inflation is running around 1.9%. So essentially, houses have not really appreciated in the last year. The seeds of weakness in pricing started with the market shift that began in 3rd<\/sup> quarter of 2013. But as we stated before, there is what is happening and then when the market knows what is happening \u00e2\u20ac\u201c which can cause a lag in price changes. \u00c2\u00a0 \u00c2\u00a0 \u00c2\u00a0 Indeed this is the case as the softness in pricing that began a year ago finally showed up in this year\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s 3rd<\/sup> quarter. So that\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s a buyer\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s market right?<\/li>\n
  3. New listings coming to market began the year up 9% over last year\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s new listings. But again, as the market is a moving target, new listings suddenly dried up as the 3rd<\/sup> quarter began, coming in 10% less than the same time in 2013 and 8% less than in 2012. This is notable because in 2012 new listings to market hit the lowest levels since 2000 \u00e2\u20ac\u201c a shocking and record breaking event. \u00c2\u00a0 \u00c2\u00a0 \u00c2\u00a0 Yet in the 3rd<\/sup> quarter we hit the lowest new listings to market ever for this time period. \u00c2\u00a0 \u00c2\u00a0 \u00c2\u00a0 So that\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s a seller\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s market right?<\/li>\n
  4. Demand was grabbing all the headlines this year, as buyer demand cooled significantly. The causes were attributed to tougher lending guidelines, interest rates climbing, Millennials (i.e. first time home buyers) not buying, and investors going away. Interest rates seemed like a red herring \u00e2\u20ac\u201c as when rates dropped there was no corresponding jump in demand. Millennials are in fact not buying. This has been attributed to \u00e2\u20ac\u0153seeing their parents lose their homes in the distress market\u00e2\u20ac\u009d. Hmmmm, maybe. Millennials seem to be delaying all traditional signposts of adulthood \u00e2\u20ac\u201c marriage, children and housing \u00e2\u20ac\u201c so it would seem to be a cultural change in commitment, not housing per se. It is certainly causing a boom in rental demand at the moment. Investor demand definitely shifted \u00e2\u20ac\u201c going from 33.5% of the single family market purchases in 2012 to only 11.8% in 2014. So, no matter the cause, if buyer demand drops that\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s a buyer\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s market right?<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    So let\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s try to answer that nagging question. The market is swinging slowly and surely back towards a balanced market primarily due to the weakest arrival of new listings in 14 years.\u00c2\u00a0\u00c2\u00a0 But, if that is the state of the overall <\/em>market \u00e2\u20ac\u201c it does not preclude the fact that the market is really a series of markets within a market.\u00c2\u00a0 Depending on price and location \u00e2\u20ac\u201c some markets are definitely in a seller\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s market and some are most definitely in a buyer\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s market.\u00c2\u00a0 How can a consumer know the reality of their<\/em> market?\u00c2\u00a0 At the risk of sounding self-serving you need the analysis of a competent real estate professional.\u00c2\u00a0 The study and accurate interpretation of supply and demand in the submarkets is the only <\/em>way to truly understand your<\/em> marketplace.\u00c2\u00a0 As always we are here to help.\u00c2\u00a0 Our thanks go to the one and only Michael Orr for his incredible Cromford Report statistics.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    It is understandable that both Buyers and Sellers (and if we are completely honest, most real estate agents)\u00c2\u00a0 are scratching their heads as to the state of this market.\u00c2\u00a0 We have listened to the sides argue we are in a \u00e2\u20ac\u0153buyer\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s market\u00e2\u20ac\u009d, no wait we are in a \u00e2\u20ac\u0153seller\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s market\u00e2\u20ac\u009d!\u00c2\u00a0 The underlying fact is that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,10,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-511","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-home-values","category-homes-for-sale","category-market-stats"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/511","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=511"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/511\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":515,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/511\/revisions\/515"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=511"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=511"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=511"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}