{"id":521,"date":"2014-11-08T04:18:34","date_gmt":"2014-11-07T23:18:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/?p=521"},"modified":"2014-11-08T04:18:34","modified_gmt":"2014-11-07T23:18:34","slug":"tis-the-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/?p=521","title":{"rendered":"Tis the Season"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"seasons-greetings\"<\/a>\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Tis the Season\u00e2\u20ac\u009d has a unique meaning to those of us in real estate. As the holidays approach, the \u00e2\u20ac\u0153seasonal effect\u00e2\u20ac\u009d goes in to play \u00e2\u20ac\u201c and this year is proving no exception.\u00c2\u00a0 The seasonal effect refers to the calendar pattern that real estate tends to follow \u00e2\u20ac\u201c year in and year out.\u00c2\u00a0 This classic pattern shows a slowing of demand (less buyers buying) after the spring buying season (Feb-June) which creates a buildup of homes for sale in the back half of the year.<\/p>\n

As we have mentioned before, this year has seen a lowered demand from buyers.\u00c2\u00a0 Normally, this drop in demand would create a surge in supply.\u00c2\u00a0 However, the first 3 quarters of 2014 also showed a dearth of sellers coming to market.\u00c2\u00a0 So what should have been a buyers\u00e2\u20ac\u2122 market all year \u00e2\u20ac\u201c evaporated in to a balanced market after the spring buying season due solely to the lack of sellers coming to market.\u00c2\u00a0 The market kept slowly building to a balanced market, only to in the last month, turn and ebb away from that balance point.\u00c2\u00a0 And so the seasonal effect is here. The turning point appeared in October when we saw small surges of supply add to the inventory accelerating the erosion.\u00c2\u00a0 It is certainly looking like we will begin 2015 back in a soft buyer\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s market.<\/p>\n

What does this signal for 2015?\u00c2\u00a0 Most pundits are predicting 2015 will be a more robust market than 2014 \u00e2\u20ac\u201c and we agree that is likely.\u00c2\u00a0 But as real estate predictions have been notoriously difficult for a few years, let\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s just focus on what we believe the largest factor is that will determine the 2015 market:\u00c2\u00a0 lending.<\/p>\n

The current noose around the neck of real estate is limited lending.\u00c2\u00a0 We have expounded on this before, but it bears repeating.\u00c2\u00a0 As an answer to the ridiculously loose lending guidelines that preceded the housing collapse, lending regulations after the collapse were excessively tightened.\u00c2\u00a0 New loans issued reached the lowest levels of this century in 2014.\u00c2\u00a0 When credit is unavailable to the average buyer, they become renters. In fact that is just what happened in the valley \u00e2\u20ac\u201c this year showed rapid increases in rental demand (and rental rates).\u00c2\u00a0 As a humorous way of making the point, we include this exchange as quoted in \u00e2\u20ac\u0153Bloomberg\u00e2\u20ac\u009d:<\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Just between the two of us, \u00e2\u20ac\u009d Bernanke told the moderator at a recent conference of the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing and Care, \u00e2\u20ac\u0153I recently tried to refinance my mortgage and I was unsuccessful in doing so,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d <\/em><\/p>\n

The audience laughed.<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u0153I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122m not making this up,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d Bernanke insisted.<\/em><\/p>\n

Bernanke also complained that stringent credit standards have made the process for first-time homebuyers excessively difficult, especially as economic conditions have improved. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153The housing area is one area where regulation has not yet got it right,\u00e2\u20ac\u009d Bernanke said. \u00e2\u20ac\u0153I think the tightness of mortgage credit, lending is still probably excessive.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/em><\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Probably excessive\u00e2\u20ac\u009d. We agree.\u00c2\u00a0 With that said, we truly do believe lending restrictions will be eased.\u00c2\u00a0 Moderate lending restrictions, combined with attractive interest rates and a slowly improving economy should combine to make 2015 a cheerier year for real estate.\u00c2\u00a0 That is why we approach 2015 with some optimism.\u00c2\u00a0 Whether we are right or wrong, we will work hard to keep you updated on the market conditions as they shift.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Tis the Season\u00e2\u20ac\u009d has a unique meaning to those of us in real estate. As the holidays approach, the \u00e2\u20ac\u0153seasonal effect\u00e2\u20ac\u009d goes in to play \u00e2\u20ac\u201c and this year is proving no exception.\u00c2\u00a0 The seasonal effect refers to the calendar pattern that real estate tends to follow \u00e2\u20ac\u201c year in and year out.\u00c2\u00a0 This classic […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-home-values"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=521"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/521\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":523,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/521\/revisions\/523"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}