{"id":698,"date":"2017-04-08T03:57:42","date_gmt":"2017-04-07T22:57:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/?p=698"},"modified":"2017-04-08T03:57:42","modified_gmt":"2017-04-07T22:57:42","slug":"the-trends-continue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/?p=698","title":{"rendered":"The Trends Continue"},"content":{"rendered":"

Supply continues to be the story in our market.\u00c2\u00a0 But like most blanket statements – \u00e2\u20ac\u0153supply is down\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201c the real picture is always a bit more \"\"<\/a>nuanced.\u00c2\u00a0 Supply, like demand, behaves differently depending on the price points.\u00c2\u00a0 Looking at a broad market overview, active listings counts are down.\u00c2\u00a0 When active listings decline in the first quarter, the very time active supply should be building, it is a strong signal that supply is weak.<\/p>\n

Not surprisingly, the most constricted inventory continues to be in the 50K-200K range.\u00c2\u00a0 As Michael Orr of the Cromford Report comments:<\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Under $200K, total supply has fallen another 20% since last year, when it was already tight, so buyers looking for homes in this price range are going find it tough going, as they have for a long time now.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/em><\/p>\n

Perhaps not as predictable, active listings rose in every other price range.\u00c2\u00a0 That\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s right \u00e2\u20ac\u201c active listing counts are up in the other prices points!\u00c2\u00a0 As he continues:<\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Active listing counts fell for the price ranges between $50K and $200K, but rose in every other price range. The greatest percentage rise in active listings over the last month was for $800K to $1M which saw an increase of 10%.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/em><\/p>\n

Does that mean it is a seller\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s market under 200K but a buyer\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s market in every other price range?\u00c2\u00a0 No.\u00c2\u00a0 Again the answers are more nuanced.\u00c2\u00a0 Although supply is up \u00e2\u20ac\u201c so is demand.\u00c2\u00a0 The growth in demand is exceeding the growth in supply.\u00c2\u00a0 Increasing supplies are easily being consumed, bringing the supply down compared to last year\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s numbers.\u00c2\u00a0 The Cromford Report continues:<\/p>\n

\u00e2\u20ac\u0153Between $200K and $2M, supply is down about 10% compared with this time last year. However demand has grown much more strongly for the $200K to $600K range than above $600K, so the balance in the market favors sellers under $600K but is more balanced above $600K.<\/em><\/p>\n

Over $2M, we have roughly the same supply as last year, which is to say, far more than adequate. In most areas it is a buyer’s market in this top end with the sales rate a little weaker than a year ago.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d <\/em><\/p>\n

So far closed sales are running about 12% over last year.\u00c2\u00a0 But the under contract numbers are only up by approximately .4%.\u00c2\u00a0 Does that mean demand is weakening?\u00c2\u00a0 Perhaps, but more likely the numbers are being constrained by the lack of inventory where demand is the highest.\u00c2\u00a0 Buyers shopping in the 200K and under range are frustrated trying to find a home that doesn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t have multiple competing offers. As supply in this price range continues to evaporate, that demand is looking less and less likely to be fulfilled.\u00c2\u00a0 Not surprisingly appreciation, particularly in the lower price ranges, continues to climb.<\/p>\n

Perhaps the clearest indicator of a healthy market is the \u00e2\u20ac\u0153listing success rate\u00e2\u20ac\u009d.\u00c2\u00a0 This is the percentage of homes that will sell while listed.\u00c2\u00a0 The market average seems to hover around 70% in a reasonably healthy market. As a point of comparison, the listing success rate in 2008 (we shudder recalling) hit a low of 22.8%. Right now the listing success rate is soaring. At the moment, traditional home sellers priced under 200k are experiencing an 88% success rate.\u00c2\u00a0 HUD & REO (foreclosed) homes in the price range are experiencing 100% & 96% success, respectively. \u00c2\u00a0500K and under homes are succeeding at an 83% rate.\u00c2\u00a0 Numbers this high haven\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t been seen since 2013 when the mix of the market was largely distressed sales.<\/p>\n

In short, overall we have a very healthy market.\u00c2\u00a0 Wondering about the specifics of your neighborhood?\u00c2\u00a0 We are happy to provide a supply demand analysis tailored to your home.<\/p>\n

Russell & Wendy<\/p>\n

(mostly Wendy)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Supply continues to be the story in our market.\u00c2\u00a0 But like most blanket statements – \u00e2\u20ac\u0153supply is down\u00e2\u20ac\u009d \u00e2\u20ac\u201c the real picture is always a bit more nuanced.\u00c2\u00a0 Supply, like demand, behaves differently depending on the price points.\u00c2\u00a0 Looking at a broad market overview, active listings counts are down.\u00c2\u00a0 When active listings decline in the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-698","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-home-values"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/698","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=698"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/698\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":701,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/698\/revisions\/701"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=698"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=698"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nohasslelistingblog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=698"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}