Month: July 2026

The Summertime Market

The spring buying season (February-June) is the peak period for home buying and selling in the valley.  Summertime brings the heat and, especially in the luxury category, an exodus of sellers and their listings. Consequently, the summer luxury market can tip into a buyer’s market just by virtue of the exodus.   The sub-luxury market is also experiencing a smaller drop in supply, but it is currently offset by the equal softening of demand.  Overall, the numbers are pretty stable and supply is still in the normal range at the moment.  That stability in supply and demand in the sub-luxury market is therefore not exerting pressure on pricing.  Current popular media theories as to “a shortage of supply” or conversely “an abundance of supply” are simply ill-founded as the Cromford Report explains:

“Surging inventory would put downward pressure on prices while an inventory shortage results in upward pressure. Looking at median sales price measures, they have had little fluctuation for more than two years, suggesting that neither of these theories is reflected in pricing trends.”

“In short, Greater Phoenix supply counts are not breaking records, they are not surging, and they are not critically low. Statistically, active supply is considered within normal range and stable for now. Meanwhile, buyer contracts have improved 11% over this time last year despite recent mortgage rate increases, indicating that buyer demand could increase significantly should economic certainty improve and mortgage rates fall closer to 6.0%.”

Despite the fact that average sellers are not experiencing rising prices, total sales to date exceeded last year by 2.9% – a positive sign, if somewhat tepid.  But as often is the case, the luxury segment of the market is behaving differently than the sub-luxury market.  According to the Cromford Report: “The largest improvement is in the luxury market where sales over $1M are up 10% and at a record high. Most impressively, sales over $5M are up 31% over last year and there have been 36 sales over $10M so far, already exceeding last year’s annual record of 32 before the year is halfway through. As for the rest of the sellers, it’s business as usual as buyers are still in the driver’s seat.. Home condition matters, seller incentives matter, and pricing matters. Expect marketing times to increase by approximately 6-10 days over the next 2-3 months.”

If you want specifics about the market in which you want to buy or sell – contact us for a free supply/demand analysis of your area.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy)

The current market is a relatively quiet one with both Buyers and Sellers showing low levels of activity.    In fact, new listings are arriving at the second lowest levels since 2000 (2023 being the lowest).  Buyer activity is faring a bit better – as demand is moderately up from last year.  This is demonstrated by stronger transaction activity, with listings under contract increasing 5.1% and closed sales up 7.6% compared to 2025. So, while this market may not be ideal, increased buyer activity is an improvement over last year. 

As far as pricing, the trend depends on which price segment you look at.  Dickens knew of what he spoke when he wrote “it was the best of times, it was the worst of times”.

The Cromford Report plainly shows the contrast of the upper end market versus the lower end market (emphasis added): “Under $500,000, the 12-month moving average $/SF has declined significantly, by 7% since Jan 2023. 

Between $500,000 and $1,000,000, the 12-month moving average has declined slightly, by 1.5%. 

Between $1,000,000 and $3,000,000, the 12-month moving average has increased slightly, by 4%. 

Over $3,000,000, the 12-month moving average has increased by increased significantly, by 17% “

As to the future, the report further comments: “The past 4.5 years have included a sharp price spike in 2021, followed by a correction in 2022 and very little appreciation from 2024 through 2026 for most homeowners. However, the likelihood that the next 5 years will follow the same trend is low. Purchasing in a buyer’s market is usually best for those who plan to own their home for at least 5 years in order to ride out cycles like this one, which turned towards a buyer’s advantage in November 2024.”

The advantage to buyers in this market is less competition for the homes and increased seller flexibility on price and terms.  The advantage to sellers is a few more buyers on the ground than last year and the assurance that they are not selling either at rock bottom nor selling just prior to a likely jump in pricing.  Sometimes quiet is not the worst problem. 

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Now let’s shift gears to a topic we rarely comment on: foreclosures.  A trailing indicator of an ailing housing market is a spiraling rate of foreclosures.  Anyone who lived thru the 2008-2013 market implosion in the valley probably still has PSTD at the mention of it. Foreclosures and distressed sales affected almost 25% of valley homes.  Fast forward to today where they are far below historic levels.  But that doesn’t stop clickbait headlines to the contrary.  The appearance of a dramatic increase in delinquencies is largely caused by a change in how FHA reports delinquencies. The Cromford Report explains:   

“The latest data from the FHA show that the share of loans more than 90 days delinquent increased by nearly 200 basis points between October 2025 and February 2026…

But this is a false conclusion. The reported increase is almost entirely due to a technical change, rather than an actual deterioration in repayment activity. Often, when an FHA borrower falls behind on their payments, they enter into a “home retention” program. Previously, such borrowers were recorded as current upon entering the program, but starting in October 2025, a new rule requires borrowers to make three consecutive payments before their loans can be marked as current. This single rule change accounted for 92% of the increase in the serious delinquency rate, according to a study by the Center for Responsible Lending.

Furthermore, about 94% of seriously delinquent FHA borrowers have significant home equity, with the median borrower having almost $100,000 in equity. This equity cushion should allow most delinquent borrowers who cannot afford their payments to ultimately avoid foreclosure by selling their home instead…

We are still about 50% BELOW normal, and although the trend is moving up, it is doing so quite slowly and consistent with things getting back to normal over a 5-year timeframe. We should also remember that the population of homeowners is significantly higher now than it was in 2004. We estimate that the overall population in Maricopa County has grown from 3.5 million to 4.7 million in those 22 years. This gives us a significant buffer before we need to start getting concerned.

In summary, foreclosures are not a significant concern at the moment for the market as a whole, and you can safely stop spending your valuable time getting alarmed about them unless and until we post a message telling you to start worrying again. If you see videos on YouTube claiming that foreclosures are exploding, please don’t click on them. You would just be encouraging their nonsense.”

How do you avoid real estate nonsense?  Work with trusted, experienced advisors who track numbers not clicks.

 Russell & Wendy Shaw 

(Mostly Wendy)

A quiet market

The current market is a relatively quiet one with both Buyers and Sellers showing low levels of activity.    In fact, new listings are arriving at the second lowest levels since 2000 (2023 being the lowest).  Buyer activity is faring a bit better – as demand is moderately up from last year.  This is demonstrated by stronger transaction activity, with listings under contract increasing 5.1% and closed sales up 7.6% compared to 2025. So while this market may not be ideal, increased buyer activity is an improvement over last year (per the Cromford Report).

As far as pricing, the Cromford Report shares this: “Home values have been mostly flat for the past two years, and the median is still down 4.8% from the peak price of $480,000 recorded June 2022. However, homes below $500K have drifted down 4-5% during the same time frame while those between $500K-$1M have remained stable with little fluctuation. Meanwhile, homes over $1M surpassed 2022 a long time ago and are still on the rise in value.

The past 4.5 years have included a sharp price spike in 2021, followed by a correction in 2022 and very little appreciation from 2024 through 2026 for most homeowners. However, the likelihood that the next 5 years will follow the same trend is low. Purchasing in a buyer’s market is usually best for those who plan to own their home for at least 5 years in order to ride out cycles like this one, which turned towards a buyer’s advantage in November 2024.”

The advantage to buyers in this market is less competition for the homes and increased seller flexibility on price and terms.  The advantage to sellers, is a few more buyers on the ground than last year and the assurance that they are not selling either at rock bottom nor selling just prior to a likely jump in pricing.  Sometimes quiet is not the worst problem.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

Mostly Wendy