The current market is a relatively quiet one with both Buyers and Sellers showing low levels of activity. In fact, new listings are arriving at the second lowest levels since 2000 (2023 being the lowest). Buyer activity is faring a bit better – as demand is moderately up from last year. This is demonstrated by stronger transaction activity, with listings under contract increasing 5.1% and closed sales up 7.6% compared to 2025. So, while this market may not be ideal, increased buyer activity is an improvement over last year.
As far as pricing, the trend depends on which price segment you look at. Dickens knew of what he spoke when he wrote “it was the best of times, it was the worst of times”.
The Cromford Report plainly shows the contrast of the upper end market versus the lower end market (emphasis added): “Under $500,000, the 12-month moving average $/SF has declined significantly, by 7% since Jan 2023.
Between $500,000 and $1,000,000, the 12-month moving average has declined slightly, by 1.5%.
Between $1,000,000 and $3,000,000, the 12-month moving average has increased slightly, by 4%.
Over $3,000,000, the 12-month moving average has increased by increased significantly, by 17% “
As to the future, the report further comments: “The past 4.5 years have included a sharp price spike in 2021, followed by a correction in 2022 and very little appreciation from 2024 through 2026 for most homeowners. However, the likelihood that the next 5 years will follow the same trend is low. Purchasing in a buyer’s market is usually best for those who plan to own their home for at least 5 years in order to ride out cycles like this one, which turned towards a buyer’s advantage in November 2024.”
The advantage to buyers in this market is less competition for the homes and increased seller flexibility on price and terms. The advantage to sellers is a few more buyers on the ground than last year and the assurance that they are not selling either at rock bottom nor selling just prior to a likely jump in pricing. Sometimes quiet is not the worst problem.
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Now let’s shift gears to a topic we rarely comment on: foreclosures. A trailing indicator of an ailing housing market is a spiraling rate of foreclosures. Anyone who lived thru the 2008-2013 market implosion in the valley probably still has PSTD at the mention of it. Foreclosures and distressed sales affected almost 25% of valley homes. Fast forward to today where they are far below historic levels. But that doesn’t stop clickbait headlines to the contrary. The appearance of a dramatic increase in delinquencies is largely caused by a change in how FHA reports delinquencies. The Cromford Report explains:
“The latest data from the FHA show that the share of loans more than 90 days delinquent increased by nearly 200 basis points between October 2025 and February 2026…
But this is a false conclusion. The reported increase is almost entirely due to a technical change, rather than an actual deterioration in repayment activity. Often, when an FHA borrower falls behind on their payments, they enter into a “home retention” program. Previously, such borrowers were recorded as current upon entering the program, but starting in October 2025, a new rule requires borrowers to make three consecutive payments before their loans can be marked as current. This single rule change accounted for 92% of the increase in the serious delinquency rate, according to a study by the Center for Responsible Lending.
Furthermore, about 94% of seriously delinquent FHA borrowers have significant home equity, with the median borrower having almost $100,000 in equity. This equity cushion should allow most delinquent borrowers who cannot afford their payments to ultimately avoid foreclosure by selling their home instead…
We are still about 50% BELOW normal, and although the trend is moving up, it is doing so quite slowly and consistent with things getting back to normal over a 5-year timeframe. We should also remember that the population of homeowners is significantly higher now than it was in 2004. We estimate that the overall population in Maricopa County has grown from 3.5 million to 4.7 million in those 22 years. This gives us a significant buffer before we need to start getting concerned.
In summary, foreclosures are not a significant concern at the moment for the market as a whole, and you can safely stop spending your valuable time getting alarmed about them unless and until we post a message telling you to start worrying again. If you see videos on YouTube claiming that foreclosures are exploding, please don’t click on them. You would just be encouraging their nonsense.”
How do you avoid real estate nonsense? Work with trusted, experienced advisors who track numbers not clicks.
Russell & Wendy Shaw
(Mostly Wendy)