Author: Russell Shaw

2019 began with an unremarkable start. Not surprising given that the last two weeks in December saw a large drop in listings under contract (a drop of 18.5% compared with the first two weeks of December – and down 10% for the month compared to December 2017).  To quote Michael Orr of the Cromford Report “In every respect, December was a weak month for demand, the weakest December we have seen since 2014 for sales … We have not seen listings under contract this low on January 1 since 2008. Clearly buyers are unenthusiastic about buying homes compared with just a few months ago.” In fact, for those who follow our market updates, we had reported that buyer demand first began wavering as early as July 2018.  Rising interest rates combined with higher housing prices impacted affordability, putting a gentle damper on demand.  But, before we all panic, there is counter balance on dropping demand.  The valley is blessed with positive net migration (i.e. population growth) which is still exceeding the current supply. So the real question is what will win in the spring buyer season?  Buyers diminished appetite or the inflow of new buyers?  Stay tuned, we will have that answer for you in a month or two.

Now on to the other half of the equation, supply.  The number of active and new listings coming to market – is equally unremarkable.  In fact the dearth of active listings has been the saving grace in keeping the market in favor of sellers despite dropping demand.  According to the Cromford Report’s numbers – supply is at about 2/3 of what is required for a balanced market.  Juxtapose that to the demand index which at the moment is only 12% less demand than a balanced market.  So the market remains still slightly in favor of sellers – even if weaker than 2019.

Does a weaker seller’s market mean that prices are on the edge of dropping?  No.  In fact buyers waiting for that may have a bit of a wait.  A balanced market (which again, we are not in yet, much less a buyer’s market) does not cause prices to drop but rather appreciation to slow down and keep more in line with inflation.  Admittedly affordability has taken a bit of hit – but we still are remarkably affordable when compared to other large metro areas.  The Cromford Report sums up the current market succinctly:

I have started to see a few writers claim that Phoenix is becoming a buyer’s market. I think this is a huge stretch. It is possible that we have forgotten what a buyer’s market really feels like. We have seen a noticeable downturn in demand but that alone does not constitute a buyer’s market.

In a buyer’s market, supply is higher than demand and currently we still have very low supply and little sign of a significant increase on the horizon. The weaker demand is still more than enough to match the current level of supply. Consequently sales prices still have upwards momentum, although this has eased a little since last spring.

I also hear talk of lower prices, but this talk is not referring to closed sales prices. It refers to the fact that many sellers are adjusting their expectations and bringing list prices more in line with market conditions. This is not resulting in closed prices going lower than last year, as we would expect in a true buyer’s market. In fact the average price per sq. ft. for listings under contract continues to hit new highs.

We have become used to a hot, growing market that strongly favors sellers and now that it is cooler, contracting in volume and moderately favoring sellers, we have a tendency to over-react and make more of the change than it really deserves. We have to stay calm and realistic and be guided by the numbers. These numbers look like a cooling off, not a downturn. We experienced a similar, though more severe, cooling off in 2013-2014, but the last significant downturn took place between late 2005 and 2009 and was followed by a 2 stage recovery from 2009 through 2013. There was also a mini-downturn in 2010-2011 which interrupted the recovery but had little lasting significance in hindsight…

Although the market is cooler and smaller than last year, it is not in any significant trouble.

What does this mean if you are a seller?  In 2019 you likely need to be more realistic on pricing and you may need to offer more assistance to buyers in need of help with closing costs.  If you are a buyer, you may have a bit more strength in negotiations than in years past – but don’t be fooled in to thinking that waiting will save you money.

As always, we are here to answer any questions about your particular housing concerns.  We are happy to help.

Russell & Wendy (mostly Wendy)

When you live in Phoenix, you’re living in scorpion territory. That’s simply a fact that comes with living in the Arizona desert. During the winter, scorpions are less active and can be found indoors. In the summer, scorpions are actively hunting for food or a mate and can be found inside and outside. Scorpions like to shelter in dark cool places with an air flow, like cracks and crevices inside block fence walls or under palms tree bark.

Living in scorpion territory doesn’t mean you have to live WITH scorpions in your home. If you have scorpions inside your home, contact an experienced scorpion control professional to evaluate the situation and recommend an effective treatment for you.

Arizona’s Scorpion Threat

The Phoenix, Arizona area is in the Sonoran Desert, and scorpions are native to desert environments. If you live in or near Phoenix, chances are you’ll run into scorpions on your property or in your neighborhood sometime. You can refer to recent maps to see where scorpions have been reported in the Phoenix area.

Arizona is home to the Arizona Bark Scorpion, which the most lethal venomous scorpion in the United States.

It can also be found in parts of Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, and Mexico. You can find other scorpion species in Arizona as well, like the desert hairy scorpion. However, other scorpion species in the USA do not pose a medical threat like the Arizona Bark Scorpion.

You can recognize an Arizona bark scorpion by the following:

• Length – From head to stinger, a mature Arizona bark scorpion has a slender body that measures 2.7 to 3.1 inches;
• 2 dark eyes on top of its head, and 3 eyes on each side of the head;
• Eight legs;
• Color. Arizona Bark Scorpions are tan in color. However, they can be yellow or even almost orange when they molt. Though these scorpions typically do not have markings, you could find one with stripes along its body and tail;
• The Arizona Bark Scorpions has a “subaculear tooth”, or a small bump on the tail that juts out beneath its stinger.
• The easiest way to identify an Arizona Bark Scorpions is by watching it! These scorpions lay their tails down parallel with the surface they are on when they’re at rest. Other scorpions keep tails up over their bodies.

When you come into contact with a scorpion, and you’re not sure which species you’re facing, exercise caution and treat it like it is venomous.  Arizona bark scorpions are nocturnal and capable of climbing textured surfaces, so be aware that you can find them on walls, ceilings, in trees and high on shelves and furniture. This includes brick walls, stucco walls, wood paneling, and drywall. Scorpions can also survive underwater for hours, so it is possible to find one alive in your swimming pool, sink, bathtub, or toilet. Arizona bark scorpions tend to gather in groups (especially during cooler months) so when you see one, others may not be too far away.

Prevent Scorpion Infestations in your Home

Arizona Bark Scorpions are attracted to cooler, moist areas that have sufficient airflow. Specialized scorpion control treatments treat all cracks and crevices around your home and yard to eliminate scorpions inside and prevent further infestations. Another way you can reduce your chance of scorpion infestations around your home is to seal up any holes or cracks in your foundation, sidewalks, block wall fences, and exterior walls. You should also repair and replace old door sweeps and weather stripping around windows and doors.

Arizona Bark Scorpions eat crickets, cockroaches and other insects. You can help prevent infestations of pests to help discourage a scorpion infestation. After all, scorpions are predators that follow food sources.

A few places where you might find Arizona bark scorpions inside your home include:

• Under Cabinets;
• Running across the floor;
• Between floors and baseboards;
• Inside Sinks and Bathtubs where they get trapped;
• In Shoes and clothing where they go for quick shelter;
• Hanging from the wall or ceiling; and
• Inside any cracks and crevices especially concrete cracks and crevices!

How & When to Hunt Scorpions

The Arizona bark scorpion survives 12 months out of the year. Usually, scorpion season begins when the temperature hits about 70 degrees Fahrenheit, which is usually in the early spring. This is when scorpions become most active.

You can hunt scorpions around your home. Generally, you’ll find them in the dark and just before sunrise with a black light – flashlight. New moon and cloudy nights tend to be the best for hunting scorpions because they’re the darkest.

When you’re searching for scorpions in your home, don’t forget to look up high. As we mentioned, Arizona bark scorpions climb. Shine your flashlight high on walls and ceilings, down by the concrete foundations, and on block wall fences. Instead of using a regular flashlight, use a black light.

Arizona Bark Scorpions glow under black light and look almost fluorescent. Pick scorpions off walls, ceilings, block wall fences, branches, and out of debris piles with needle nose pliers. Place them carefully in jars and screw the lids shut. Using a glass jar to collect scorpions prevent scorpions from climbing out because they can’t climb the smooth glass surface. When you are hunting scorpions, wear thick gloves to prevent stings.

If you do not feel comfortable killing the scorpions yourself or your infestation is too large for you to handle on your own, call a professional pest control company to handle the job. An experienced scorpion control professional will not just kill scorpions on contact, but they prevent scorpion infestations in the future.

Residential Pest Control for Scorpions

Scorpions aren’t like other kinds of pests. They can’t be controlled with general pest control like other types of bugs. Scorpions need to be treated with specialized products formulated to be effective specifically on scorpions.  There are several over the counter “scorpion killer” products at home improvement stores but don’t be fooled, this may be best left to the professionals. Over the counter products only kill scorpions when they are sprayed directly. They DO NOT keep killing or repelling scorpions after they dry.

Scorpion populations need to be managed with compounds specifically formulated for scorpions. Unlike other pests, which can be managed with less potent compounds, scorpion control involves potent compounds mixed with extended exposure agents. This is because scorpions tend to hide out in nooks and crannies throughout homes and yards. Effective scorpion control keeps killing scorpions even after treatments have dried and keeps working for about a month.

Work with a Scorpion Pest Control Pro

When you have scorpions in your home and property, work with a scorpion pest control professional who can eliminate the problem and prevent future infestations. Contact Responsible Pest Control today to set up your initial consultation, and start effective scorpion pest control for your home.

Five year old Kobuk is ruggedly handsome with an aloof independent side.  He has been with Home Fur Good since January after being discovered at county.  Kobuk is listed as an English Sheepdog mix weighing in at 68 pounds.  Kobuk is people selective, however, once you enter his circle of trust, he will be the bestest friend you could ever have.  Kobuk likes to lean on his people for their attention and affection.  He loves toys, especially those he steals away from other dogs.  Kobuk has a very playful side, but with the stress and activity of the shelter he does not let his guard down often enough to show it to everyone.  With time and a little patience Kobuk will show you his inner puppy ready to romp and goof around.  You can visit Kobuk, Thursday, Friday and Saturday at Home Fur Good, located at 10220 N 32^nd Street in Phoenix.  You can contact the shelter at info@homefurgood.org or by calling 602-971-1334.

Given the strong recovery the Phoenix housing market has posted, it is understandable that comparisons are still being drawn to 2006 (the peak of our housing market).  We have commented in the past that we are not in a “bubble”.  But a recent commentary by the Cromford Report on pricing really caught our eye.  It is not surprising to us that the press routinely shares erroneous housing market information often using statistics to make a poorly examined point.  Homeowners would be well advised to have a skeptic’s heart when accepting the media’s research.  As British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli so famously said (and Mark Twain popularized) “There are three kinds of lies:  lies, damned lies, and statistics.”  The latest premise is that housing prices have exceeded the prices set in the 2006 market. Uh… not exactly.  As no one says it better than our guru Michael Orr of the Cromford Report, here are his comments (with only bolding by us for emphasis) that explain the facts about the housing numbers:

“The local press has been headlining that sales prices for homes in Maricopa County have hit an all-time high. This is a very misleading statement that I take strong issue with. Although the median sales price has recovered to 2006 levels, the conclusion that sales prices in general are higher than June 2006 is completely wrong.

There are very few homes that would sell in 2018 for more than they would have sold for in 2006. The vast majority of homes in the valley have not recovered the value they had in 2006 and are still quite a long way from doing so. If home sellers believe they can sell their home for more than it was worth in June 2006, they are going to be bitterly disappointed, unless they live in the heart of Arcadia or a few isolated parts of South or Central Scottsdale. These media stories make life hard for agents trying to set reasonable asking prices when taking new listings.

The first problem is that the stories in the media are comparing the monthly median sales price for May 2018 with that for June 2006. The homes that sold in May 2018 are a very different collection from the homes that sold in June 2006, so this is an apples to oranges comparison. Let us compare the two sets of homes:

1. June 2006
   • number of affidavits describing the property as a single-family home = 10,715
   • median sales price = $280,000
   • percentage of homes that were new builds = 28%
   • average sales price = $357,067
   • average home size = 1,840
2. May 2018
   • number of affidavits describing the property as a single-family home = 9,987
   • median sales price = $285,000
   • percentage of homes that were new builds = 14%
   • average sales price = $354,727
   • average home size = 2,007

We can see that the sales mix is very different between June 2006 and May 2018. In June 2006 we had twice as many new homes as in May 2018 and the average homes size in 2018 is over 9% larger than in 2006. The average price per sq. ft. is much lower in 2018 than 2006.

A second problem is that affidavits of value are woefully inaccurate about property types. Hundreds of townhomes and condos are mis-classified as single-family properties every month. Therefore any numbers quoted for single-family homes in May are likely to be wrong until the affidavits have been checked and corrected, which takes several weeks.

In general, median sales prices are often misused and should NEVER be the basis for comparing the values of homes or comparing new home prices with re-sale prices.

A much more reasonable measurement is average price per sq. ft. which, though not perfect, adjusts for the difference in the average home size. In June 2006 the average price per sq. ft. of single-family homes sold in Maricopa County through the MLS was $193.65 while the average for May 2018 was $170.02.

We therefore estimate that the average single-family home in Maricopa County has a 14% rise in price to achieve before it reaches its value in June 2006. Individual homes will obviously vary quite a bit.

While the median sales price has recovered to the level of June 2006, the value of the average home has certainly not achieved this. Do not let your clients be misled.”

So we accept his missive to not let our clients be misled and hope this article helps to that end.  The 14% mentioned above is an average and every neighborhood has its own “number”.   As always, we are happy to answer any of your concerns or questions about your specific neighborhood.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy)