An Open Letter to Buyers
The reasons to buy a home are easy: rental fatigue, the desire to build equity, tax benefits, stability, customization, and so on. Harder is when to buy. So many buyers attempt to “time the market” looking for that perfect storm of low prices and low rates. But when that window hits the market it often comes without headlines. Let’s look at a few market numbers from the Cromford Report to see if it supports that we have hit that window:
“Mortgage rates dropped over 2 months from July 15th (6.85%) to September 16th (6.1%), dropping payments by 7.5% across the board and reaching the lowest rate in over a year… while there was a wave of refinances, purchase applications were stubborn. This is a common phenomenon. While rates are actively dropping, it’s human nature to wait and see where they stabilize before taking action, hoping to save even just a few extra dollars off a payment. Rates ultimately bounced and settled around 6.3%, and after 3 weeks of stability buyer activity finally ticked up to a level better than the past three years for October.
Mortgage rates weren’t the only measure dropping over the past 5 months, so were list prices. Listings under $1M saw asking prices drop an average of 2.5% from May to August, then stabilize in September and October. ..The biggest price declines have been seen in the first-time homebuyer price ranges. Since July, sales prices for condos between $250K-$300K in Maricopa County (around 1,000sqft) have dropped 4.3% and are 15% below the peak prices of 2022. Single family homes in Pinal County between $300K-$400K (around 1,700sqft) are down 6.7% from last April, and are also 15% down from the peak of 2022. Single family homes in Maricopa County between $300K-$400K (around 1,500sqft) are down 2.9% from last year and down 13% from the peak of 2022.”
We see buying signals for buyers right now:
1. Lower prices
2. Lower rates
3. Seller contributions on 56% of the closings
4. Arrival of the 4th quarter which brings higher supply and less competition from other
buyers and the final and most important thought-
5. Timing the market doesn’t matter as much as “time in the market”. The longer one holds
a property the more appreciation and equity gains are possible. Like compounding
interest, time in the game is the key. Get in the game.
Would you like a personalized analysis of your circumstances? Contact us.
Russell & Wendy Shaw
(mostly Wendy)