Month: December 2025

Incremental Improvements

2025 was neither a record-breaking year nor one so dismal that it was headline grabbing.  Instead, it was an incremental market with signs of small steady improvement. As this year winds to an end, demand has slowly been creeping up, and with it optimism for the coming year.  The Cromford Report shares these facts:

“… this year November closed an extra 23 sales per day, putting the improvement at 9% (over Nov 2024) So far December is also outpacing last year with an extra 14 closings per day on average. If this is a peek into what 2026 may bring, then sellers should be optimistic for contract activity in January.

…Recent improvements in demand combined with declines in supply are pushing the Cromford Market Index back in the direction towards a balanced state. While Greater Phoenix is still in a buyer’s market overall, central and established cities are becoming the first to move back into seller’s markets. Most recently, Phoenix, Mesa and Tempe shifted back into seller’s markets within the last 30 days, putting nearly all cities in the Northeast and Southeast Valley in seller’s markets, with the exception of buyer’s markets Queen Creek and Sun Lakes. Developing cities on the edges of Metro Phoenix are typically the last ones to pull out of a buyer’s market. Pinal County cities, for example, are buyer’s markets except for Apache Junction, which is a seller’s market. The West Valley is a mix as El Mirage is a small seller’s market and Peoria recently shifted into a balanced market, joining Glendale, Avondale and Laveen. All other West Valley cities are buyer’s markets.

Don’t expect much upward pressure on price in the short term, even if your city has shifted back into a seller’s market. Prices can take up to 6 months to show a response to a shift, which means the seller’s market must be maintained, and many of these cities are still quite weak. What sellers can expect is more showing activity, shorter days on market, and less pressure to reduce their price once the Spring buying season begins.”

Whatever 2026 brings, we will endeavor as always to keep you informed.  From our family to yours, we wish you the happiest of holiday seasons.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy)

The 4^th quarter in real estate rarely is one to talk about.  Demand is highest in the spring thru mid-summer and then progressively declines in the 3^rd and 4^th quarter.  This year is no exception but comparatively, according to the Cromford Report, we are in the midst of the best 4^th quarter for the Greater Phoenix market in 3 years. Admittedly the last 3 years have had anemic demand.  The market has taken time to absorb the extreme shift in rates in 2022 where the typical 30-year mortgage interest rates moved from 3.9% in February to over 7% in October. But demand is slowly adapting to the new normal.  To quote the Cromford Report:

“It took a while for the buyers to mobilize, but better late than never. So far, this is the best 4th quarter Greater Phoenix has seen in 3 years for contract activity. Listings under contract are up 15% over last year with notable improvements in the market under $300K and the market over $1M. The government shutdown didn’t help closings for FHA and VA transactions, especially between $300K-$600K, but October saw a 3.3% increase in sales regardless, and closings delayed will add to the November sales counts…

In the meantime, stock market performance, corporate profits, and cryptocurrency have performed well enough to boost the luxury market in Q4. Contracts in escrow between $1M-$2M are up 25% over the past 5 weeks, and up 16% over last year. Contracts in escrow over $2M have risen 25% over the past 9 weeks putting them up 7% over last year. It hasn’t been enough to boost contracts in retirement communities much, but Sun City, Sun City West, and Sun Lakes are not doing worse than last year.

Contract activity typically drops after the Thanksgiving holiday until the new year begins. This sparks a wave of price reductions just before Thanksgiving followed by just a trickle of reductions in December. January is the most popular month for new listings to hit the market, so properties that don’t sell between now and December should expect another wave of price reductions in the first few weeks of January.

Overall, while demand is slowly improving, supply is still on the rise and keeping most cities in a balanced or buyer’s market. Prices are still under pressure and buyers are looking for the best value for their budget”

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(mostly Wendy)