no hassle listing blog

The 4^th Buyer’s Market in 25 Years Arrives in Time for the Holidays

Most consumers are unaware that the greater Phoenix real estate market spends far more time as a seller’s market than as a buyer’s market.  Point in fact, in the last 5 weeks we have entered a buyer’s market for only the 4^th time in the last 25 years.  But as usual, God is in the details. 

The luxury market and the mainstream market are fueled by different economic engines and therefore do not always act in unison.  This is the case currently.  Luxury is experiencing rising pricing and activity courtesy of the robust stock and crypto markets.  Contrast that to the mid- market, and you see demand and pricing struggling due to  mortgage rates in the high 6%+ range.

When we look at supply and demand, we see the fundamentals behind the buyer’s market.  While demand hit a low in September and has improved if only a smidge, supply has risen during that same period.  To quote the Cromford Report “…Buyers have benefited from more choice and sellers are suffering increased competition.” Further the report states : “It continues to be a frigid market for most zip codes in Greater Phoenix with the lowest contract ratio* (listings under contract divided by active listings) we’ve seen since January 2015, 10 years ago.”

As to pricing, we are seeing the luxury market increasing while the mainstream market is vulnerable to erosion.  Given the low purchase activity – there is little to suggest upward pricing and in the outer fringes of the valley there is unquestionably downward pressure on price.  It is important to remember that pricing is a trailing indicator, not a leading one.  It can take months for pricing to respond to shifts in the market.  So really it is a question of how long this buyer’s market will last?  If interest rates decline to the 6% range – we will see demand respond and respond more rapidly than supply can.  At which point, buyer advantage will cease.  If they remain stubbornly above 6.5% then likely we will see further downward pressure on pricing.

Whatever 2025 brings, when we know – our clients will know.  Wishing you a joyous holiday season.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy)

Buyer’s Market Arrives for the Holidays

Slowly but surely the market has eroded for most sellers in the last eight months.  The overall market is now a “buyers market”.  While there are pockets that still decidedly favor sellers (Fountain Hills, Chandler) most of the valley is balanced or favoring buyers.  While sellers rightfully blame low demand (courtesy of rates hovering at 7% or higher) the truth is supply is more to blame.  As the Cromford Report shares, “The overall number of active listings (excluding UCB and CCBS) has grown 34.7% over the past year. This increases to 36.9% if we eliminate out-of-area listings…The number of active listings without a contract has climbed from 15,574 at the beginning of February to 21,368 today. That is an increase of 37% and it means buyers have far more homes to choose from and are therefore less likely to choose the one you are selling. Sellers have to compete with each other and this is leading to frequent and substantial cuts in their list prices. They are also competing with a good supply of new built homes, which are only lightly represented in the 21,368 count. New homes are getting an unusually large share of the contracts signed in 2024”.

Why are new builds currently providing so much competition for the resale market?  Again, interest rates (along with newer styles and features).  Builders are offering bundled loans at lower rates (i.e. they buy loans in bulk to provide more competitive rates) The resale buyer is buying at market rates, not so with new builds.  This is putting pressure on resale sellers to price correctly from the start and present the home in its best condition to compete.

How long will this buyer’s market last?  Who can say?  Factually, buyer markets are rare in Greater Phoenix.  As the Cromford Report further points out: “While the last one was in 2022, it only lasted 4 weeks. Before that, 2014 fell just short of reaching a buyer’s market, but maintained a slight buyer’s advantage for 4 months. Before that, the last buyer’s market was in 2010, which also lasted 4 months. This time around, it depends on whether mortgage rates stagnate or decline once again.”

Therefore, the answer to how long this will last is: it depends.  Whatever the market brings, we will be here to advise you on the strategies that work in the market we find ourselves.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy)

Sellers vs. Buyers – who is winning the real estate battle?

The real estate market rarely moves fast enough to garner headlines – despite what YouTube or internet clickbait would have you believe.  Instead, trends tend to be slow moving and yet discernable with time.  This year saw a steady erosion of seller’s strength ending with a market that now favors buyers in most segments.  That slow moving erosion seemed to undergo a temporary shift in September, when rates dropped and both buyers and sellers responded.  Demand was up approximately 14% compared to the same time last year.  Given that it was over 3 years since we had seen any improvement in year over year numbers, this was good news indeed.  The caveat?  Supply also was up – 52% over last year.  Further, even though most people incorrectly thought mortgage rates would drop after the Federal Reserve cut their base rate – a stronger than expected economy and jobs report delivered the opposite with higher rates.  Therefore, what seemed to be a fast moving demand trend in favor of the sellers quickly reverted to buyers when rates jumped back up.  Add to that the fact that supply tends to rise seasonally, rising throughout October and November – only to decrease as sellers come off the market in December for the holidays.  Likely we will enter the new year at a bit of a stalemate with buyers largely in control – waiting to see where interest rates will take the market.

Prices

Pricing is a key concern whether buyer or seller.  There is a little known statistic that is a very reliable pricing indicator which we pay close attention to called the “listing success rate”.  That is the percentage of homes on the market selling.  When that rate is over 90% (meaning that 90% of all listings on MLS are selling, 10% are not) we have a very hot seller market with prices rising.  Conversely, when that number is low, prices fall.  As of the writing of this article, the listing success rate is 70.7%.   That means that almost a third of homes are not selling.  This is just slightly above the normal rate of 68%.  But normal does not mean it feels balanced. For a historical perspective of why, the Cromford Report shares the following:

“Our month-to-date listing success rate is 71% which is nothing special, but at least it is above the long-term average of 68%. But It is also below last year at this time when we measured 75%. This tells us that the market is close to normal and not improving much. However we may not feel like it as close to normal, because between 2011 and 2022 the market stayed above normal for almost the entire period. Normal feels much worse than 2011-2022. Also we have not had much experience of normal in the last 24 years. It has mostly been better or worse than normal.

Those who were active between 2006 and 2011 will realize how much worse it was back then, when the listing success rate stayed below 61% and often fell below 40%. Far more listings failed than succeeded for a full 5 year period.

We can also see how unusually strong the market was from 2020 to 2022 when the listing success rate exceeded 90% for long periods.”

So what does all this mean for pricing? We have not seen prices decline when the success rates are above 65%.  However different market segments may have lower than average success rates. To get significantly lower prices you need excess supply and desperate sellers.  Is that what is on the near horizon?

“Prediction is very difficult – especially about the future.”  Niels Bohr

Predication of interest rates and the market beyond a month or two are difficult, speculative, and mostly wrong. Demand will largely be determined by interest rates – and who knows where those will land.  At the moment the Cromford Report points out:  “Buyers are still gaining negotiation power as supply rises… The general picture is of low volumes but stable pricing. The outlook is for volume to improve a bit and for prices to remain stable with a slight downward tendency due to the slight excess of supply over demand… Unless the trend changes direction we are headed toward a buyer’s market.”

Buyer markets typically result in downward pressure on prices. That is what we have seen in the later part of 2024 – sellers adjusting their numbers and pricing expectations as the market has moved to a buyer’s advantage.  But again, “slight downward tendency” is not a pricing implosion.

Strategy

The best strategy for sellers is hire well (choose the right agent) and get pricing and marketing right from the beginning.  For buyers, recognize you have a window of opportunity to buy with more negotiation strength and choices.  If rates drop, expect demand to jump quickly and that window can close. Both sides need to know their strengths and weaknesses and act accordingly.

Gratitude

As 2024 comes to a close we want to thank our clients for their loyalty and trust.  We truly are grateful and it is an honor to serve you.  We look forward to helping you in 2025. 

With our thanks ~

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy)

Rates Rise, Demand Falters

Generally, the real estate market is like a large ship taking a long time to turn.  Since the beginning of the year, the market has slowly shifted in favor of buyers and away from sellers.  That slow moving erosion seemed to undergo a shift in September, when rates dropped and both buyers and sellers responded.  Demand was up approximately 14% compared to this time last year.  Given that it has been over 3 years since we’ve seen any improved year over year numbers, this was good news indeed.  The caveat?  Supply is also up – 52% over last year and up 3.7% in just the past week.  Further, even though most people incorrectly thought mortgage rates would drop after the Federal Reserve cut their base rate – a stronger than expected economy and jobs report delivered the opposite.  We now have the highest mortgage rates in 2 months.

Therefore, what seemed to be a fast moving demand trend in favor of the sellers quickly reverted to buyers being favored in most market segments thanks to the rising rates. Also, seasonally, supply grows this time of year throughout October and November – only to decrease as sellers come off the market in December.  As the Cromford Report points out:  “Buyers are still gaining negotiation power as supply rises… The general picture is of low volumes but stable pricing. The outlook is for volume to improve a bit and for prices to remain stable with a slight downward tendency due to the slight excess of supply over demand… Unless the trend changes direction we are headed toward a buyer’s market.”

The best strategy for sellers is hire well and get pricing and marketing right from the beginning.  For buyers, recognize you have a window of opportunity to buy with stable pricing and choices.  Both sides need to know their strengths and weaknesses.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy)

The Long and the Short of it

Despite interest rates falling to their lowest number since February 2023 the market remains tepid.  The buyers’ response to lower rates while positive, is still minor.  According to the Cromford Report, the number of properties under contract is up 1.5% from this time last month, and yet still down 1.2% from a year ago.  Of course this could all change (perhaps rapidly) if rates drop further.

With the elections looming, many wonder if that will act as a catalyst to the market.  We have commented before that elections do not greatly impact the real estate market.  But no one makes this case better than the Cromford Report:

“Every election year people ask if the presidential election has a significant effect on the housing market. The short answer is no.

There are always a few buyers who loudly claim they are deferring any home purchase decision until they find out the result of the election. These people are a tiny proportion of the total, insignificant in the overall context. In fact if we examine the volume of sales in the 5 months leading up to a November election we find that:

in 2004 and 2020 home sales were stronger than normal non-election years

in 2012 and 2016 home sales were in line with normal

in 2000 and 2008 home sales were weaker than normal non-election years

Notice that each line includes one win for the Republican nominee and one win for the Democratic candidate, so sales volume does not even seem to correlate to who wins.

The weaker years (2000 and 2008) correspond to recessions which are more likely to cause weaker home sales than elections.

The housing market is affected by life decisions and events like couples deciding to live together, have children, separate, job moves and a death in the family. Politics has much less impact than politicians would have you believe. The state of the economy and taxation rules will have a significant impact on the market. But predicting how the economy will behave and what taxation changes might come into effect after a president’s election proposals have been heavily modified by congress is fraught with risk. Pundits will predict, but no-one is good at this forecasting and results rarely match what is predicted. Unexpected events like epidemics have a more dramatic effect on the housing market.

So the long answer is also no.”

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy)

The valley’s real estate market has been stuck in neutral for a while.  Both buyers and sellers have largely been staying on the sidelines and often for the same reason – interest rates. Sellers wanting to move, swallow hard when considering giving up their 3% mortgage for a 7+% replacement rate.  Buyers look at their decreased buying power when rates are elevated. This results in a low volume market (i.e. fewer transactions). Finally, August 5th, the long awaited drop in interest rates happened when rates fell to the 6.5% range.  While that won’t impress sellers holding 3% mortgages – it is a full percent below April’s rates of 7.5%.  Buyers may be surprised that a 1% drop in rates affects their payment comparable to a 10% drop in the home price.  That is a dramatic shift in buying power.  But the psychology of money is a funny thing – this drop in rates increased the number of mortgage applications only by a measly 1%.  Why?  When rates drop, buyers don’t always act immediately – in hopes they will fall further as the pundits keep predicting. 

For sellers trying to sell in this market, this balanced market of low supply and low demand, feels decidedly unbalanced.  A low volume market equates in to lower showings, thereby fewer offers, longer marketing times and often more buyer demands in concessions and repairs.  How can that be a balanced market? Because balance and normal are two different things.  The fact is that our market spends far more time in a seller’s market than a buyer’s market.  As the Cromford Market Report explains: “Over the past 24 years, we have tended to be mostly in a seller’s market and when we are not, we often have a buyer’s market. In buyer’s markets DOM (days on market) values get very high, even well into the hundreds of days. Since we are rarely in a balanced market, sellers experiencing them tend to think they are worse than balanced, because they feel “worse than normal”. They ARE worse than normal because a normal market is unbalanced in favor of sellers. Balance and normal are not the same thing.”

On the bright side, it does appear that the market has hit bottom with signs that micro improvements are now favoring sellers.  But these changes are small enough to be nearly undiscernible. To further quote the Cromford Report :  “The change is still painfully slow but it is real. The trend has reversed but is yet to gather any significant momentum….

The market is starting to improve for sellers overall and I hope buyers took good advantage of their opportunity to negotiate harder over the last 3 months.

Cave Creek, Paradise Valley, Buckeye and Fountain Hills are showing the largest percentage gains. In addition, Scottsdale, Gilbert, Maricopa, Goodyear and Peoria are all up over the last month. The largest declines are still concentrated in the Southeast Valley (Tempe, Chandler and Mesa), but Avondale has weakened substantially too…

9 out of 17 cities remain seller’s markets… We have 3 cities that are balanced, while the remaining 5 are buyer’s markets. “

Prices are a trailing indicator of the market, and overall the average appreciation in the last year has been an anemic 1.9%.

For sellers, until our market comes out of the stalemate, expect longer marketing times with fewer offers.  Prepare to pay concessions as over 55% of sellers are currently doing.  For buyers, waiting for lower rates may not be your best strategy.  When and if rates drop, competition for homes will rapidly jump and likely without a corresponding jump in supply. With buyers currently thin on the ground, you have better bargaining power.  This is when agents can prove their value in good negotiation and expert market analysis.  Even these subtle tea leaves can be read by experienced eyes.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

 (mostly Wendy)

Why Does Balanced Market Feel Unbalanced?

The valley’s real estate market has been stuck in neutral for a while.  Both buyers and sellers have largely been staying on the sidelines and often for the same reason – interest rates. Sellers wanting to move, swallow hard when considering giving up their 3% mortgage for a 7+% replacement rate.  Buyers look at their decreased buying power when rates are elevated. This results in a low volume market (i.e. fewer transactions). Finally, August 5th, the long awaited drop in interest rates happened when rates fell to the 6.5% range.  While that won’t impress sellers holding 3% mortgages – it is a full percent below April’s rates of 7.5%.  Buyers should know that a 1% drop in rates affects their payment comparable to a 10% drop in the home price.  But the psychology of money is a funny thing – the drop in rates increased the number of mortgage applications only by a measly 1%.  Why?  When rates drop, buyers don’t always act immediately – in hopes they will fall further. 

For sellers trying to sell in this market, this balanced market of low supply and low demand, feels decidedly unbalanced.  Why? The fact is that our market spends far more time in a seller’s market than a buyer’s market.  As the Cromford Market Report explains: “Over the past 24 years, we have tended to be mostly in a seller’s market and when we are not, we often have a buyer’s market. In buyer’s markets DOM (days on market) values get very high, even well into the hundreds of days. Since we are rarely in a balanced market, sellers experiencing them tend to think they are worse than balanced, because they feel “worse than normal”. They ARE worse than normal because a normal market is unbalanced in favor of sellers. Balance and normal are not the same thing.”

For sellers, until our market comes out of the stalemate, expect longer marketing times with fewer offers.  Prepare to pay concessions as over 55% of sellers are currently doing.  For buyers, waiting for lower rates may not be your best strategy.  When and if rates drop, competition for homes will jump.  Right now with buyers thin on the ground, you may have better bargaining power.  This is when agents can prove their value in good negotiation and expert market analysis.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy) 

Market Erosion

The trickling erosion of the market continues although the rate of erosion appears to now be slowing.  While supply is up, in fact up a whopping 57% from this time last year, it is still below normal.  Demand is more problematic and continues to be anemic at best.  It seems likely to stay that way unless a drop in interest rates changes buyers’ appetites.  So although we are overall in a balanced market –  for most sellers it doesn’t feel that way.  In fact, areas and price points are behaving differently.  In the center of the valley, supply is more constrained as builders have no land to create new product and thereby more competition.  It is the outer areas where builders are active that sellers are at a marked disadvantage.  Price, a trailing indicator, is being affected currently in part due to the luxury market going flat in summer and in part by seller needed price reductions.    As the Cromford Report shares “seasonal patterns are being emphasized by the weakness in demand”.  So the real two-word problem is – anemic demand.

 The Report further summarizes:

We are firmly into the quiet season and closed sales for June 2024 were already down 15% compared to June 2023. We anticipate low volumes to continue during July and we have 2 to 3 months of seasonal price weakness to endure before the market is likely to pick up steam again in October. This could be jump-started early by a drop in interest rates, but we are not holding our breath.  There is no need for panic, but patience is definitely being tested.

Buyers should take advantage of the lull as they have a chance to negotiate in their favor with more choices to consider.  Sellers need to brace for less showings and offers and try to hang on to the buyers they attract.  Patience seems to be the byword.

Wonder what your specific neighborhood is doing as far as supply/demand and pricing?  Contact us we are always here to give you facts, not headlines.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy)

Most people falsely believe that election years somehow benefit the real estate market.  Elections can affect the stock market (which can affect the luxury market) but the basic underpinning of real estate remains supply and demand.   Real estate agents had hoped 2024 would see an improvement over 2023, but instead a very slow motion chill has been taking place all year creating an even more anemic market than the last.  Slow moving change can prove challenging to interpret given that it is harder to perceive minute, but persistent, changes than seismic shifts.  Not surprisingly interest rates appear to be the major culprit.  Buyers are unenthused by current rates.  The only reason we are not in a decidedly buyer’s market is that sellers have been equally unenthused to sell and give up their mortgages that linger in the 3% range.  With both sellers and buyers in retreat, the result is a low volume (low number of transactions) market. 

Supply

Even though supply has climbed slowly due to decreased demand – that steady creep has resulted in a 54% increase in the number of homes for sale compared to last year.  Additionally, the new build market is faring better than the resale market, which creates further competition for the resale market.  Sellers (along with their agents) are just starting to get the message.  Sellers have begun to recognize that buyers need help with closing costs and buying down rates – as the monthly payment impacts buyers more than sales price does. In the midrange price points, sellers are giving concessions to buyers in more than half the cases.   In the million+ category, rates are not typically a factor and pricing is therefore the target.  The average seller in that category is giving up $51,000 in price, up from last year when the average was $36,000.    The Cromford Report confirms:

“Supply continues to climb, which is unusual for the time of year and we notice that the rate of climb has increased since last month. Buyers have 54% more homes to choose from than they had last year but still face 30-year mortgage rates over 7% which is limiting demand. Sellers are starting to face serious competition from each other and their agents are having to work hard to get their homes sold.”

Sales

Climbing supply and subdued demand results in a cool market.  If we compare the active listings to the number under contract (the contract ratio), we statistically confirm the clear cooling trend.  Again we turn to the Cromford Report for these statistics:

“Most of the slightly positive signs we saw last month have disappeared. We have far fewer pending listings than last month and under contract listings are down 7.8% from this time last year…. For all areas & types, the contract ratio has dropped 15% from 54.5 to 46.1 over the last month. This compares poorly with 77.0 on June 1 last year. The current 46.1 reading represents a balanced market with buyers finding plenty of supply to choose from and sellers experiencing more competition from each other than they have for most of the last decade.

The number of listings under contract (8,238) at week 23 is the lowest we have recorded for that time of the year since 2007. At no point so far in 2024 has the count managed to claw its way above the miserable totals for 2023.

Now 2007 was an awful year with the market stalled by the certain knowledge that house prices were about to collapse. We are not in that situation in 2024, but buyer enthusiasm for re-sale homes is still very low indeed. To put 8,238 into perspective, the total for week 23 of 2011 was well over 21,000.”

Price

Shifts in supply and demand eventually impact pricing.  But as we have mentioned before, price is a trailing indicator.  The valley’s median price tends to flatten in the summer due to the luxury segment of the market going quiet as those with a choice seek cooler climates.  To avoid seasonal impact, we simply look back a year where we see that pricing has been fairly stable with only gentle appreciation.  The Cromford Report adds specific clarity:

“Pricing was unexpectedly strong in April, but May has seen this trend reverse and the average price per sq. ft. is now up only 3.5% for the last year. The median sale price was unchanged, as it is far less affected by the luxury home market. It is up just under 6% compared to a year ago.

We are entering the weakest time of the year, between June and September when luxury home buyers are thin on the ground. They tend to find cooler places to hang out than face the heat of a Phoenix summer house hunting expedition. Investors are busy during the summer as bargains are easier to find and gross margins on fix-and-flips are looking very healthy these days. Investors tend to pay less than market value, so this also drives the average $/SF lower between June and September. We expect pricing to be flat to lower over the next 3 months, after a strong rise between January and May…In other words we are expecting stability in pricing with a slight tendency towards weakness.”

Summary

We are not yet in an overall buyer’s market but the weakening market trends, unless interrupted, say we are slowly arriving there. Many of the greater Phoenix perimeter areas are already there.

Buyers While interest rates are not currently motivating buyers, sluggish demand and supply that is up 54% from last year is providing buyers an opportunity to buy that has been missing for years.  Flat pricing, more choices, and less competition from other buyers is a buying opportunity.  Interest rates can be refinanced in the future when more favorable.  Getting the right house at the right price is key.  If interest rates drop enough (sub 7%) we likely will see a rapid rebound in demand.  Demand moves much more swiftly than supply and supply can dry up rapidly.

Sellers With supply slowly and steadily rising all year, sellers are coming to grips that they need to work harder to attract a buyer.  Sellers haven’t seen a supply/demand ratio as anemic since 2014/2015. As in any market, buyers are rewarding the attractive, well-priced and well-marketed homes.  The less desirable homes with deferred maintenance, need to price more aggressively.  Both categories of sellers need to get pricing right and manage their expectations.    Agent choice matters – good marketing, good market knowledge, and proper pricing are the seller’s best friend.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy)

The quiet market

The marketplace keeps answering the question of whether an election year boosts the real estate market.  And that answer still remains no.  Here is your proof. This market  continues to echo the (non-election) 2023 market – low volume and even quieter than the previous year.  Again, the culprit is interest rates.  The recently released Consumer Price Index showed the annual inflation rate had declined to 3.3% and that good news immediately caused mortgage rates to drop below 7%.  Still, it wasn’t a large enough drop to create a major boost in demand.

While interest rates may not be currently motivating buyers, sluggish demand and supply that is up 54% from last year (according to the Cromford Report) is providing buyers an opportunity to buy that has been missing for years.  In the midrange price points, sellers are giving concessions to buyers in more than half the cases.  Sellers have recognized that buyers need help with closing costs and buying down rates – as monthly payment impacts buyers more than sales price does.  In the million+ category, rates are not typically a factor and pricing is therefore the target.  The average seller in that category is giving up $51,000 in price, up from last year when the average was $36,000.

With supply slowly and steadily rising all year, sellers are coming to grips that they need to work harder to attract a buyer.  Sellers haven’t seen a supply/demand ratio as anemic since 2014/2015. As in any market, buyers are rewarding the attractive, well-priced and well-marketed homes.  The less desirable homes with deferred maintenance, need to price more aggressively.  Both categories of sellers need to get pricing right and manage their expectations.    Agent choice matters – good marketing, good market knowledge, and proper pricing are the seller’s best friend.

Russell & Wendy Shaw

(Mostly Wendy)